Monday, September 22, 2014
Saturday, August 2, 2014
the recent high in this ratio closely matched the geometric mean of the 1999 top and the 2011 bottom of 2.771 (actual high was 2.821).
so that is a 50 per cent retracement on a logarithmic scale.
I also see some similarity in the chart pattern over the last year and a half and the topping pattern from 1997 to 2000. obviously the time frame and magnitudes are different, but structurally they look similar.
I've received a handful of emails this year asking me for my outlook on the stock market. I try to point out that I haven't made an accurate call on stocks since the Fall of 2011, so I'm not sure why anyone would take anything I say regarding the broader market seriously. but, still, I've had a numerological target in mind for some time: 2004 on the $SPX. recent highs have come to within less than a per cent of that number, so the recent weakness doesn't surprise me. but a retest or even minor new highs wouldn't surprise me either. plus, what I am looking for at this point is a sizable correction, not necessarily the advent of a full-on bear market. that remains to be seen.
Thursday, June 19, 2014
ok like a 5 per cent move for gold stocks today, seems to have everyone excited. so for all you clamoring for an update on the PM complex charts:
so I bought some bottoms the last few months, got the entire account in FSAGX, overall cost basis of 19.51. don't have a clue what's next, but I'd sure like to keep moving the next couple months, didn't figure I'd have to continue updating this trade and fucking charts this long as it is. I'll let you know when we start selling.
Tuesday, May 6, 2014
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
here I am just going to update some of the precious metals complex charts we've introduced over the past months.
so the PMC weighted index has indeed fallen back to the former neckline we highlighted. however, prior to the current retracement, it popped above that old shoulder resistance. so now I'm in the position of seeing a downside target met, but one that had been contingent on a resistance target that didn't hold. what to do? well, I already did it, before even updating this chart this evening: I bought more FSAGX -- a lot yesterday and another lot today. So now the account is 80 per cent invested in gold mining stocks.
here's an update on the PMC WI CROC*
the CROC had flirted above the neutral line for a bit there, but has since fallen back below the previous resistance. that's ok with me; it just that sentiment in the complex has backed off. I look for the upward trend line to hold.
the major area of concern should be the rapid deterioration of the PMC ratio index:
so yeah, I've bought more gold stocks, might buy a little more, depending. the complex isn't behaving particularly badly in my mind -- it raced up quite fast and now stepping back. I'll get concerned if silver hits a new low and/or our ratio index does.
*Consolidated Rate of Change
Thursday, March 13, 2014
as we are flying through Denver tomorrow, I joked to Lisa that they should name the airport "John Denver International Airport", after he passes away of course. Lisa's like, I think he's already dead, didn't he die in a plane crash?
Saturday, March 1, 2014
the metals complex had quite a thrust higher since we last looked. Here's a chart of the PMC Weighted Index:
(the weighted index is similar to the PMC Index I introduced last year, but instead of being equal parts GLD, GDX, SLV, it consists of three parts GLD, two parts GDX, two parts SLV, and one part GDXJ.)
it is interesting how we appear to have met resistance right at the level of the two shoulders during the previous bearish sequence. Perhaps the complex will find support near the former neckline? don't know, aside from my initial entry in early December I haven't done very well micro-managing this trade, so I better just go about my business. however, I will buy more FSAGX if this complex chart retraces to that old neckline.
here's an update on that PMC ratio chart I posted a few weeks ago:
not that I was paying attention at the time, but at the height of the recent rally you'll note the divergence on the ratio chart compared to the weighted index up top. I am not swing trading these markets, so minor tells like that don't concern me much, but for those who are trading more actively, little indications like that can prove quite valuable. (or they can screw everything up if you don't know what yer doing.)
and now for my favorite chart, a combination of the weighted index and the ratio index (it's just the geometric mean of the two series):