Tuesday, June 10, 2008

the slightest scrape

if yer late to the game or got scared out of your pro-Dollar positions last week, here are some price points we might eye as retracement targets for the near-term.

1.56 euro
1.96 pound
106 nippy
890 gold
17.30 silver (I would never ever ever short silver, but I offer the number for educative purposes)

there is no guarantee that any of these will back up much at all. but if we do get another little squeeze this week then the above numbers could come in handy as a guide. I jotted them down on a cue-card and taped it below my monitor. the anti-Dollar complex is a hemophiliac susceptible to the slightest scrape or pin-prick. and the letting could last a long while once it gets flowing.

UPDATE wee hours Thursday morning (6/12): the wall of selling into yesterday's twilight proved overwhelming. the pound did a little better than the low-ball retracement estimate I gave it, and the euro came within 20 pips of my target but the upswings in the others offered little to get excited about. now, as I write, lows of the week are being probed across the board. another quetschen or two should be expected before the week's out, but it seems the stage has been readied. well, unless I'm completely misreading the price action here.