Saturday, August 23, 2008

el imperio de la mentira

for some reason I've become quite bored watching the financial circus lately. so I thought I'd turn my attention to politics today. turns out that's even more boring than the markets. so I'm just sitting at my desk nibbling on a block of Grano Padano, hoping something will come to me.

well, when in doubt, quote Ortega:

'El imperio de la politica es, pues, el imperio de la mentira.'

they added the second donkey to the show today. yawn.

an excerpt from Barry's introductory speech:

He looked Slobodan Milosevic in the eye and called him a war criminal, and then helped shape policies that would end the killing in the Balkans and bring him to justice. He passed laws to lock down chemical weapons, and led the push to bring Europe's newest democracies into NATO. Over the last eight years, he has been a powerful critic of the catastrophic Bush-McCain foreign policy, and a voice for a new direction that takes the fight to the terrorists and ends the war in Iraq responsibly. He recently went to Georgia, where he met quietly with the President and came back with a call for aid and a tough message for Russia.

yeah, bringing these 'democracies' into NATO has lately really shown itself to be a brilliant strategy.

speaking of war and its prospects, let's take a look again at the Amex Defense Index / Gold Ratio. I have previously claimed that the movement of this ratio should have predictive power as to when a new war would start.

my thoughts were that a move below the 160 level on the chart would presage the start of a new war, or at least a major expansion of the mickey mouse ones we got playing currently. but as you can see the ratio dipped below that level twice this year with nothing major happening on the world scene. sure, the volume of belligerent rhetoric got cranked up each time, but, unless you count this Georgian thing, a major military event has been absent. maybe a sustained trend below the support level will be necessary to take The Dollar Wars to the next stage.