Friday, September 12, 2008

All You Can Carry

this is real tentative, but it could be that the washout on the yen carry trades has finally completed the spin cycle. this morning I added small AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY long positions to my account. I've kept the stop losses pretty tight, as I still regard the potential for a liquidity panic as real, although the probability for one taking hold in the short term seems to have been greatly reduced. I shorted the Dollar versus the N. Krone yesterday (within .25% of the Top, beatch!) which is also something of a carry trade itself.

but also I'm loaded up on Gold from a level that I hope (and pray!) is an effective bottom, and long Silver from a level that would be too embarrassing to mention.

so for the most part I'm long metals and short the nippy. whenever we've seen Gold and the nippy move counter to each other it has been a good time to get positioned in Gold. but once the nippy shifts and starts to move sympathetically to Gold, that's when I'll get really bullish on metals - and bearish on about everything else.