Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Oil Traders are Stupid

that's why oil usually tops out last and bottoms last. the remedial market. sure there are probably some fancy macro-economic theories trying to explain the phenomenon, I've probably concocted one or two myself, but 'oil traders are stupid' appears to pass the Occam's Razor test just fine.

I'm not sure how the markets are going to move here in the short-term. I'm still long some silver, which I've just resigned myself to holding for a while. I got fairly scared an hour or so ago and decided to short gold for a hedge. the neckline at 777 seems pretty vulnerable at this point. and finally I've redoubled my USD/JPY short yesterday and this morning. by betting on the yen I hope to profit from a liquidity panic. if one comes along before I get stopped out.

I'll wait a couple more days before I brag about calling a top in the Stock Markt. but hey I posted that fairly close to the highs of the day. hopefully that'll help make up for all those bad short-term calls I've made. see how it goes.