Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Pick Yer Bottom

but do wash yer hands please.

I called the bottom in Silver at about $10.50 two years ago. I'll be damned if I'm proven wrong on a call I've been right about for over 100 weeks. yikes.

December Gold dropped as low as 752.50 today. judging from the price history of this contract, this is where one would expect very strong support:



yesterday I anticipated a final wave down and I am fairly convinced that's what we got today. the intraday chart:



what I have been waiting for this entire correction has been a discernible corrective wave pattern fitting for a Wave Two reaction. what we have seen so far is at least more convincing in this regard than what we've seen up until today. here is a chart of this correction with the identification of a 3-3-5 pattern:



if I am in error, then it would likely be because I've miscounted the last 5 wave down pattern. an alternate interpretation would be that we've only seen three waves so far. time will tell.

some other commodities are looking decent now also, though frankly this whole situation is extremely sketchy, and I'm convinced that I really have no clue what the near-term will bring for any of the markets, be it commodities, stocks, bonds, or the currencies. I will say though that my main concern is that we get a blow-off on the parabolic curve that's developed on the Dollar Index:



Update 3:18 am: so much for that support! what's next? 730, 715?? damn, this is amazing. I might have to get a real job here soon.