Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Equivolume Charts -- MSFT, INTC, CSCO, HPQ, GLW

these symbols had the largest volume on Tuesday (11/18/08) of the S&P 500 components, excluding financials and GE.

I've included a few 'technical' indicators this time. I'm not a big indicator enthusiast, but I look at them anyway. occasionally they will show something interesting.

the RSI indicates that the market, despite recent declines, isn't even oversold yet. some might say that's like a non-confirmation or something, but it in itself doesn't convince me of much.

the price oscillator (PPO) remains bearish.

Chaiken Money Flow (CMF) appears to still be in an inclining trend. that doesn't mean a lot to me at the moment, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

despite being up some today, the trend is still down. a close above 20.50 could be considered bullish, though frankly selling any irrational spikes up at this point may well prove the most profitable course of action.

another new low hit today before closing up a touch. if this is forming a bottom it is sure doing a good job concealing its intentions.

see all the lower highs? that's Bad. see all the lower lows? that's Bad Too. I think I said I was neutral on Cisco last time. changed my mind. it's a sell now. I'll change my mind again if it closes above 17.50.

I was listening to Bloomberg Radio this morning and HP's earning were the big story. exceeded expectations. might exceed expectations next quarter too. but you Know, if a stock drops for 12 weeks and then on the 13th week when earnings come out it pops up to where it was the week before, that shouldn't be viewed as the Second Coming. if, on the inevitable retracement, the price holds 30 for a couple days there might be some hope that the bottom (for this round anyway) is in.

Corning issued a warning about earnings. assuming they are not overstating the problem, this is not good for the outlook for companies that deal closer to the consumer end of the supply chain. discounts for electronics, TVs, computers, et al could be just absolutely massive post-holidays. the market must clear.

but check out the CMF. big divergence there. Corning actually looks relatively cheap here, interesting to see how much more downside is left, if that wasn't the low yesterday.

what strikes me here is that 3 out of these five stocks hit new lows yesterday. the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 closed higher yesterday, but really it was pretty mixed. 269 up to 223 down on the Five & Dime. it's important to note that the Dow Transports actually closed lower on Tuesday, as did the S&P Mid- and Small-Cap indexes.