Saturday, November 15, 2008

Extra Savings for the Holidays

wsj reports:

The Bright Side: Deep Retailer Discounts, an online discounter based in Salt Lake City, will be selling items at 15% to 45% off full retail price for the holidays. Even now a gray crocodile-embossed tote bag from Yves Saint Laurent sells for $1,300 on the site, a discount of 31% from the retail price of about $1,900. Since mid-September, the company has been snapping up high-end apparel, boots, shoes and handbags from brands such as Prada, Gucci and Jimmy Choo that it has never carried before. Its inventory of shoes alone has swelled to 55,000 pairs from fewer than 2,000 before September.

send me an email when the tote bag's $150.

the last couple days I've concluded that current market trends have about 10 percent more to go before the deck gets reshuffled. so figure from Friday's close the SPX will go below 800 in the near future, Gold below 680 (might hit that 666 if we're lucky!), EUR/USD 113, USD/JPY 89, Oil may or may not hold 50, and Bond prices will probably move 10% too, but good luck guessing which direction.

if this plays out then it should mark the end of Phase Two of This Great Contraction. many people will throw in the towel. many will back up the truck. intelligent - yet still mired in the mainstream - analysts will call the Bottom (in whatever). if they already called the Bottom, they'll call the No-Really-This-Is-It the Bottom.

as far as I'm concerned another 10% hair-cut from recent levels isn't all that spectacular. just that last swill lingering at the bottom of a can of cheap, warm beer.

all this amounts to little more than speculation on my part. the markets should start to provide verification or stultification of my outlook by late next week.