Sunday, November 9, 2008

Panic Ratio ($VIX:$IRX) Remains Elevated

last week Gary over at Biiwii pointed out that the VIX was possibly making a reversal back down. time will tell, but I would like to point out that my 'Panic Ratio' still remains elevated.

while I certainly don't expect this to hit a new high any time soon (if ever) the fact that it isn't dropping (notice all the moving averages pointing higher at the moment) makes me suspicious*.

this is the best indicator on the market. so we'll watch it closely this week. a drop below 8 would indicate that panic may be waning in the short-term. which would actually be nice, cus then we could get back to the analysis of cool stuff like valuations and money flows (once the money starts flowing again!) and such.

* a couple months ago I was 'skeptical' about everything. now I'm 'suspicious'. oh where will I be at the end of the year? incredulous? vindicated? committed? -- I love the precision of a double entendre. and the versatility of exacto-knifes.