Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Australian Dollar -- the Charts

in the last post I asserted that the Australian Dollar (AUD henceforth) was what you wanted to be in forex-wise. when I say that, it doesn't mean that you should get all crazy leveraged in it. you might just want to trade some of your USDs or euros in for AUD on a cash basis. but more than likely you'll probably not take any action at all. that's okay too. someday you'll finally take a cue from what you read on Trend & Value. and when you do, that'll be the time when my analysis is completely wrong. so don't do anything with the AUD here. please. I got a lot of money (relatively speaking) riding on this. don't jinx me.

here's the charts of the different AUD crosses. the horizontal lines are the possible retracement targets based on Padovan ratios.

the AUD/USD rate:


AUD/EUR (on oanda it's eur/aud):


this last one, relative to the Canadian Dollar is just fascinating to me. notice that it already hit the .43 retrace line before backing off again.

seems to me that the AUD has been attempting to make a bottom on all these charts. maybe it's a false bottom, but there has been plenty of occasion for it to hit new lows the last few weeks, and it's just not dropping.

in the next post we will get into some of the so-called 'fundamentals' supporting a bullish outlook for the Australian Dollar.