Saturday, March 28, 2009

666 -- Gold and the Triumph of Numerology

last year I wrote a post predicting that the S&P 500 would hit 666 (or abouts). I was right about that, but I was wrong on something else. I also wrote that the price of Gold might be $666 at the same time the stock index was 666. that error keeps bugging me. how could I have been so far off? intellectual laziness, I suppose.

I confess though that I am still obsessed with the possibility of Gold hitting 666. and now I am doubly obsessed, because I got the notion in my head that the metal could hit the number pretty soon. as soon as May actually. as soon as May 12th or 13th to be exact.

why 666?

it's not because I believe in God, or his adversary. I don't. I take the number seriously because of the principles of proportion. Proportion is Everywhere. 3/4, 2/3, 5/8, 3/5, 1/2, 1/3, 3/8, 2/5, and so on and on. you Know, these fractions you learned in primary school. our mind orders the world according to these basic, irreducible fractions. 666 is just 1/3 of 1000. 1000 was about the recent high for the price of Gold. how evil!

also, in October 2006 Gold hit a low of 560.75 (PM Fix), and in March 2008 reached a high (so far) of 1011.25. a full Plastic retracement (0.75488) of that wave would be 671.18, not too far from 666.

or taking last month's high of 989 instead, a .75488 retracement would be 665.72. there are other numbers I could throw in here, but I'll spare you.

then there is the crowd psychology component. some poll has it that 70% of Americans believe in 'Satan'. and those that do not most likely still have an idea about the supposed 'number of the beast'.

or you could take a conspiratorial view of things and figure that those who pull the strings just like to fuck with people.

but why should Gold go down at all from here?

that's a good question, and one for which I confess not having a great reason.

but there is that five wave down pattern on last year's chart. sounds silly to base predictions on 'wave theory', but I can't help it. it's just too obvious to ignore. (or maybe it's so obvious that it really should be ignored?...)

plus, the near universal bullishness on Gold has me pretty suspicious. everyone is expecting Gold to go to like 2 or 3k. it will, to be sure, but not before all the believers' faiths are tested.

basically, I think Gold is in a 'flat'. if that is the case, then one more corrective wave would be in order to complete the formation. when this correction is over (whether at 800 or 750 or 666 -- matters little) then the market will be in a position to move to the next level. after this correction is over, the 'Gold Bubble' will begin.

why May 12th or 13th?

that's just a wild guess. I say that the market could drop to my price target as soon as those dates. if not then, it might be sometime in the Summer or early Fall.

but I'll leave you with a couple charts. I may or may not explain these in some future post.

(I was going to wait to post this until Gold closed below 900, just to make sure my hunch was on the right track. but then I figure, what the hell? it's just a blog. be aware though, this outlook really is predicated on Gold closing below 900 (preferably a couple days in a row) very soon (like within the next week). if that does not happen then this prediction will likely be abandoned or at least severely revised.)