Saturday, May 9, 2009

US Consumer Credit and Imports from China -- take two

on the previous post Otto commented,

But these are YoY numbers, not absolutes. Sure that's a serious import dump, but imports are still much hgher in FY09 than they were in the 1990-2002 median years.

Or am i being dumb tonight?

more like I was not clear on the point I was trying to make.

I was trying to highlight the severity of the contraction in imports from China compared to the (so far) mild slowdown in US Consumer Credit, with the point that if things are this bad for imports now, God help China if an actual debt deflation hits the American economy.

here are charts of the absolute figures for Consumer Credit Outstanding and Imports from China:

of interest to us is the sensitivity of the import figures to changes in the credit figures.