Friday, June 19, 2009

my response to an email I received this morning

some day he will be right about his long standing 1650 number. whether that is now or not remains to be seen.

Martin "It's Just Time (Served)" Armstrong seems like an interesting character, but so many people are hyping his cycleisms these days that I am suspicious. unfortunately, the 'wechselwirkung' inherent in human activities makes it difficult for prominent predictions to play out. predicting what will happen is an event itself which influences the historical cycle. (cf. Popper and so on)

for example, if anyone but an obscure blogger had predicted that the S&P would hit 666 months before it probably would not have happened.

but, as I see it, a breakout soon and a run to 1600ish is certainly doable. it just doesn't happen to be what I think will happen. I would take it more seriously if Sinclair wasn't spraying everyone with it.

furthermore, if Sinclair actually took it seriously you would think he would keep mum about it. if it doesn't happen it could well be because he spoiled it.

you don't fuck with the Space/Time continuum like that.