Monday, October 5, 2009

oil will be 20 dollars by december 2009 -- Search of the Day

someone just arrived at the Trend & Value blog via the following google search:

oil will be 20 dollars by december 2009

here is the the blog post landed on:

Verleger Predicts $20 Oil This Year on ‘Devastating’ Crude Glut -- bloomberg

while I do still think Oil prices will move significantly lower, maybe not to 20, but close, the timing of such a move now seems rather problematic. it is not impossible for this to happen by the end of the year, but prices need to start heading south in the very very near future for the forecast to play out. I continually kick myself for making time specific forecasts, perhaps I'll learn the lesson some day.

as it is, the currently prevailing guideline does not show near-month WTI prices hitting our target low until mid-March of next year.

that's just a guideline, and I'm personally not putting too much confidence in it, but still, lot's of markets have been hitting important highs and lows at that point of the calendar the last few years, so perhaps Oil will have its turn.