Thursday, October 29, 2009

search of the day -- forward pe ratio of s&p chart

someone just arrived to this here blog via this here google queary:

forward pe ratio of s&p chart

the search brought up this post I wrote about a year ago:

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 18, 2008
S&P 500 P/E Ratio Update


...pretty good post I gotta say, vintage Trend & Value.

anyway, I haven't a chart of the forward P/E sought by the searcher. if anyone does have updating charts (or can make them) of the trailing and forward P/Es, send them over. I'll give you a free subscription to the newsletter if I can use them.

well in the post last year the Forward P/E was 11.9, while today the analyst community are projecting earnings now to give a forward of 17.85. today's forward is 50% higher than last year's. the market would have to fall by a third to get back the perceived value of last year. that would take the Five&Dime back below 700, a little lower than what I've had in mind recently, but certainly doable I suppose.

by the way, the median forward P/E for the Trend & Value 50 Index is 13.73. the median trailing P/E is 17.35. the lower valuation of my index versus the S&P is probably mostly due to the fact that companies actually have to post a profit to be included in the T&V50 while the people at S&P will accept any old loser.