Sunday, November 1, 2009

89.8 Percent Bullish

51 S&P 500 stocks are now trading below their 20, 50, and 200 day moving averages. see the list at the bottom of post.

when I first checked this stat back in September the number was 12. then about a month ago I checked up on it again and found the number was 39. since that post I started tracking the stat on a daily basis (though I missed one day). the lowest number was 11 on 10/15, while the highest reading so far has been 51 this last Friday.

the following chart of the S&P has the figures for each day.



the notable point of this indicator, if you can call it that, is that while the S&P is hardly changed since the first reading of 12 in September, the number of stocks that are bearish under this metric has increased over four fold.

so when I make little assertions like "the underlying structure of the market is deteriorating" this one of the things I have in mind. but there are plenty of other things to point to as well.

finally, when the indicator hit a low of 11 on 10/15, I made a portfolio of those 11 symbols to see whether they would underperform or outperform the broader market. an equally weighted basket of those 11 stocks is down 6.42% from 10/15, while the S&P 500 is down 5.5%.

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S&P 500 stocks trading below 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages on 10/30/09:

TSO
Q
AEE
LMT
LLL
PEG
GME
FLR
EXC
AZO
DRI
FPL
DF
AMGN
AYE
NTRS
BIIB
CMCSA
NDAQ
BCR
APOL
LOW
FSLR
GILD
PCS
MON
AOC
PPL
FAST
PWR
GENZ
STJ
IRM
QCOM
DNR
HES
NOVL
WFR
VLO
VMC
S
NUE
PHM
MBI
MI
KBH
KEY
EK
ERTS
BK
BSX