three month Canadian dollar trend

another search someone arrived to the site by:

three month Canadian dollar trend

I've never posted anything on the Canadian Dollar three month trend. in fact I've only posted about CAD once, a few months ago, and I didn't really say anything then. had I Known how many search hits I'd get for that post, I would have spent more time on it.

anyway for the guy who wants info on CAD's 3 month trend, here are charts of CAD relative to the other 6 major currencies I track. the charts show the performance of CAD against each counterpart for the last three months. I've also included the 65 day moving average for each pair.


(click image to view full size or click here for updating version)

overall, CAD has been very strong the last couple weeks. this is something I hadn't really anticipated. still trying to figure out if this is the start of bull move for the loonie, or just a blip.

AUD EURO 10 year chart

this morning someone in Australia arrived at this post via the following search query:

AUD EURO 10 year chart

but that post does not even have a chart on it, let alone one going back 10 years. I think this chart may be more what you are looking for:


(click here for updating version)

the chart measures the Euro relative to the Australian Dollar. the higher the ratio, the more valuable is EUR relative to AUD. so AUD really got clobbered last fall, didn't it? but since October the pair has formed a fairly broad, yet defined trading range, and you can see on the graph below that for the last few weeks EUR/AUD has traded right in the middle of that range. I keep thinking the rate will go down, meaning AUD strengthening, but so far it just keep wiggling back and forth. but the eventual break out of the recent range, whether that is up or down, should be relatively easy for a currency trader to exploit.

Bonds More Volatile Than Silver

here are charts of today's 37 minute Rate of Change (ROC) for SPY, UUP, TLT, GLD, and SLV.



Gold and Silver's relatively subdued reactions to the Company Store's press release today is mildly interesting.

but I'm more interested in markets for US Treasury debt. subscribe to my daily newsletter to learn my latest outlook for Bonds and Notes, and to receive explicit trade indications as opportunities arise. show me an analyst that has a better track record forecasting bond prices and interest rates over the last couple years and I'll give you a free month's subscription to the Trend & Value Letter. But since that is unlikely, you may want to just use the Google Checkout button at the top of the blog.

Caterpillar (CAT) -- Equivolume Chart

you either have here a triple bottom super-duper buying opportunity ...or a company not far from bankruptcy.

anyone have an opinion?

ten year euro treasury

just got a visit from this search:

ten year euro treasury

the visitor arrived to this post, but that deals with the US Ten Year Note. I'm guessing the fellow was trying to find information about some European debt instrument.

so here is a Ten Year Chart of the German Bund price:



backing off from new long-term high. might go back down to 120. but ultimately it's going to 150. at least.

Humboldt Economic Index

just came across this cool site by the Economics Department at Humboldt State University:

Humboldt Economic Index

you can read all about it on their site, but essentially the index attempts to measure overall economic activity in Humboldt, California. check out this graph of the index over the last four years:



(image obtained from latest report)

this little recession will be over any day now. don't worry!

EUR/USD point and figure chart

the long-term price formation of the Euro has really started to come together.


(click image to view full size, or click here to view updating version.)

for comprehensive analysis of the Foreign Exchange Markets, subscribe to the Trend & Value Letter. the Google Checkout button at the top of the blog awaits you.

dreams do come true.

Lew Rockwell linked to this video a couple days ago. perhaps the coolest thing ever.


wingsuit base jumping from Ali on Vimeo.

the sites I link to have good tastes

if only there were a few more quality analysis sites like Biiwii. then I might actually get some traffic once in a while...

Gary had some kind words to say this morning about me, Trend & Value, and that newsletter I write that you've been meaning to subscribe to.* read all about it by clicking here.

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*payment button at the top of the page works great. or email trendandvalue@gmail.com with questions or to request a sample letter. if you might have an interest in subscribing, I'll send you this morning's piece that Gary refers to in his post. I hate giving shit away, but for you. . . maybe just this once.

australia treasury bond 10 year march 2009 chart

from China we get a visit via this search:

australia treasury bond 10 year march 2009 chart

this was my post that the search turned up, but that's the chart of AUD/JPY I just posted. here's a chart of the Australian 10 Year Bond:


(here is the site from where I lifted the chart)

trend line aus dollar

another Australian Dollar search, this time out of Siam:

trend line aus dollar

the searcher landed at this post, but there aren't any trend-lines on those charts.

but since it takes such little effort to draw a trend-line, I'm happy to offer one here on a chart of the Australian Dollar versus the Japanese Yen:

10 year chart australian dollar

someone just arrived to the blog by this search:

10 year chart australian dollar

the thing is that I didn't have a 10 year chart up for AUD yet. google generated this post on the first page of the search:

Chart -- 10 Year Treasury Note Price

so I thought I'd put up the chart he was looking for. you Know, just in case he came back.

here you are Sir, a 10 year chart of the Australian Dollar:


(click image to enlarge or click here for link to updating chart.)

Charts -- Treasury Futures

below are six month charts of March Futures contracts for T-Bond and T-Notes.

the bubble's bursting, the burst is bubbling. every one says so. those chinos ladinos are surely now going to dump all our bonds and buy . . . what were they going to buy again?

Euro Chart with Padovan Targets

if the recent lows hold...

Chart -- 10 Year Treasury Note Price

to Bond Bears this must surely look delicious.

Nippy Charts -- BOJ asleep at the switch today?

curious strength in the Yen for a little while today. here are charts of the Nippy relative to the other major currencies.













I'll dissect this more in tomorrow morning's subscriber letter.

Euro hit 1.292

a month ago readers of this blog were informed about the potential support for the Euro at 1.29(ish). the low so far this evening has been 1.292.

what's next for the Euro? well, subscribe to the Trend & Value Letter* and as soon as I figure it out you'll be the first to Know. (or you can follow the link above to the post last month.)

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*the Letter is published five mornings a week and emailed to you as a PDF attachment. subscribe with the Google Checkout button at the top of the blog page.

Trend and Value Letter at biiwii.com

biiwii.com has this great page called 'news & analysis'. and right on that very page you can find a link to an article written by yours truly, titled 'Trend & Value Report - Saturday Night Special'.

I wrote an extra letter for subscribers this weekend. then I figured, what the heck, why not make it available to the public?

while you won't be reading a regular weekday issue of the Trend & Value Letter, this "Saturday Night Special" edition is a fair representation of my work. at least I think so. but a reader in Japan messaged me with the comment, "I think that was your best letter so far. It was focused and all the ends tied together nicely."

anyway, whether it's typical copy or the best one yet, you can read it over at biiwii.com/analysis.htm.

--- and thanks to Gary not only for linking to my work but also hosting the file. after you subscribe to my newsletter (order at the top of this page) don't forget to sign up for Gary's Notes from the Rabbit Hole. Gary has a strong grasp of the world situation and in my opinion he is the best Technical Analyst around.

S&P 500 Component Changes (last 3 months)

here are the companies that were added or removed from the S&P 500 Index since 10/17/2008:

Additions:

NASDAQ OMX Group Inc. NDAQ

J.M. Smucker Co. SJM

People's United Financial Inc. PBCT

DENTSPLY International Inc. XRAY

Wynn Resorts Ltd. WYNN

Cephalon Inc. CEPH

Stericycle Inc. SRCL

Life Technologies Corp. LIFE

The Dun & Bradstreet Corp. DNB

Republic Services Inc. RSG

Equitable Resources Inc. EQT

SCANA Corp. SCG

Owens-Illinois Inc. OI

FLIR Systems Inc. FLIR

Iron Mountain Inc. IRM



Deletions:

Dillard's Inc. DDS

Terex Corporation TEX

Unisys Corp. UIS

General Growth Properties Inc. GGP

Hercules Inc. HPC

Ashland Inc. ASH

Anheuser-Busch BUD

Applied Biosystems Inc. ABI

Liz Claiborne Inc. LIZ

Allied Waste Industries Inc. AW

Transocean Inc. RIG

Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. MER

Wachovia Corp. WB

National City Corp. NCC

UST Inc. UST

I refuse to spend my money on tat

the Research Department here at Trend & Value found a nice Dear Sir letter at ft.com:

I refuse to spend my money on tat

Published: January 3 2009 02:00 | Last updated: January 3 2009 02:00

From Ms Lydia Heade.

Sir, Has it occurred to anyone in the retailing business that the reason we are not spending our money is because they are selling us rubbish that we don’t want or need?

I am not spending money because my home is already well furnished, I have no wish to wear hideous clothes that aren’t designed with the human body in mind (and lose their shape after one wash), and have no desire, let alone cupboard space, for plastic tat that serves no useful function.

I wish somebody would point out the obvious fact that many of us are not spending money because there is nothing in the shops that we want to waste our hard-earned pennies on.

Lydia Heade,
Oxon, UK

Panic Ratio Update

our Panic Ratio (VIX divided by T-Bill Rate) remains elevated, but is well, well off its highs. if the ratio breaks below the trend line I drew on the chart, then by all accounts the Stock Markt and other liquidity correlated markets should get a bounce.

Video Interview of McDonald's CEO

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

I thought Skinner did a good pump job until the subject of MCD's debt came up about 7 minutes into the interview.

Skinner: "it's minimal."

MSNBC: "minimal... 9 billion or so?"

then about 7:45 he comments about a recent bond offering saying, 'it was a good opportunity to take some cash on board. cash is king, our balance sheet is strong and we're very positive (giggle - inaudible)...'

there seems to be some confusion here. cash is king, so it's a good thing we borrowed some ???

this guy, and most of the rest of Corporate America, is still living in a dream world.

USD/JPY Hourly Chart

(click image to view full screen)

I'm looking for a short term shift in currency trading patterns over the next few days. the idea is for the Nippy to top out first and then for the US Dollar to roll over. or is it the other way around? this is a confusing business at times.

anyhoo, I've got my eye on the USD/JPY.

Chart of McDonalds (MCD)

Interesting Chart: XLB:XLP Ratio

here's a ratio chart that compares the performance of XLB (basic materials ETF) to XLP (consumer staples ETF):



which will prevail, safety or cheapness?

Sample Letter Available

it occurs to me that there may be some of you who have contemplated a subscription to The Trend & Value Letter but would like a taste test first. so I've decided to offer this morning's letter as a sample to anyone who might sincerely consider subscribing to the service.

if you fit this description then feel free to send an email to trendandvalue@gmail.com and I'll send you the PDF of today's issue.

even if you are not interested in subscribing to my Letter, I still want to thank you for visiting this blog. once I get the routine down of writing the subscribers' letter every day, I'll start posting more on the blog again too. in the mean time I appreciate your patience.

US Dollar Index delenda est

the US Dollar index is up 1.29% since the beginning of trading last Friday morning (01/02/09), as this performance chart of UUP, the USD Index ETF shows:



but Trend & Value thinks the USD Index, with its 57% Euro weighting, sucks, as it gives a very skewed picture of the currency markets. therefore, we have created new, equally weighted indexes for the major paper monies of the world. these Equal-Weight Currency Indexes should help us more accurately track the trends in the foreign exchange markets.

for example, while the popular 'trade-weighted' USD Index is up over one percent on the year so far, our Equal-Weight USD Index is actually down about .25% over the same period.

in the future I'll post on the blog more about these Equal-Weight Indexes, but those who want to get the latest Index values and currency markets analysis should subscribe to the daily Trend & Value Letter. receive a month of the letter for $28, or get three months for only $65. use the Google Checkout button at the top of the blog to sign up, or email trendandvalue@gmail.com and I'll send you an invoice.

(oh and don't forget to vote for Inca Kola News in the Weblog Awards. click here to vote.)

Confidence Index -- LQD:TLT

about a month ago I posted a couple charts of the LQD:TLT ratio, when it was near its lows. I also wrote that the 'ratio needs to hold if any sort of reflationary cycle is going to gain traction.'

so far, so good. but now that the General Liquidity Rally has started to gain steam, we need to stay smart and realistic. we need to keep our eye out for signs of a Turn. identifying an eventual top in LQD:TLT would be of great help to us in that regard. I'm not saying that the Party's Over yet, I'm just introducing a tool (one of many) that can help us stay on top of the situation.



if you find value in this type of analysis and would like more of it (much more) -- combined with explicit trade recommendations -- you really should subscribe to The Trend & Value Letter, which gets delivered to your email inbox five mornings a week. use the Google Checkout button at the top of the blog to sign up, or email trendandvalue@gmail.com and I'll send you an invoice.

Vote For Otto!

Inca Kola News has been nominated for the 2008 Weblog Awards, in the category of Best Latino, Caribbean, or South American Blog.

Otto's up against 9 other sites, a few of which have huge readerships, so he is going to need all of our help to make a good showing.

click on the link below to go to the virtual voting booth and cast your vote for Inca Kola News, or for more information click on the link below that.

Best Latino, Caribbean, or South American Blog

Voting starts today for the Weblog awards

they opened the polls today and they will remain open for another week or so. you are eligible -- and encouraged -- to vote once a day. so add 'vote for Otto' to your day planner this week.

A Client's Review of the Trend and Value Letter

a subscriber just emailed me his initial thoughts on the first issue of the Trend & Value Letter:

Just finished the pdf letter. Excellent. I am an eager student. That is very clearly written and the explicit instructions for trades to take make it very much worth paying for, assuming the longterm results of all the positions suggested make money. :-) ... I think you have done a really fine job. It will be astounding to turn out work like this on a daily basis. You will find a natural pace, and your audience will be on your side after this tour de force. Bravo again!

John in New England

thanks for the kind words, John.

haven't subscribed yet? choose the one month or three month payment option on the Google Checkout thingie at the top of the blog and begin receiving the Trend & Value Letter tomorrow. (I'll even send you today's letter.)

Euro drops again

my forecasts for the Euro have been fairly accurate recently. click here to read some previous posts on the matter.

just another market Trend & Value has been tracking with success. just another reason to subscribe to the Trend & Value Letter. you wouldn't want to miss out on anything would you? and since I email you the letter five mornings a week, you'll get my forecasts and trade recommendations in the most timely manner possible.

use the Google Checkout button at the top of the blog to subscribe or email trendandvalue@gmail.com and I'll send you an invoice.

Global Equities compared to Gold -- couple charts

a year ago I wrote a post titled Support for Global Equities Poised to Break where I included a chart of the Dow Jones World Index relative to the price of Gold. at the time the ratio was sitting at .359. last week the ratio was .20:



and here's the ratio since 1992:



Monday's Trend & Value Letter will feature analysis of some of the major Stock Market indexes relative to the price of Gold. if this subject interests you then consider subscribing to the Letter. (click here for more information.)

Welcome Barbara!

yesterday I promised a nice lady up north a special blog post just for her, as she was the first to sign up for the Trend & Value Letter. (she went with the three month option too -- Marginal Utility is Everywhere!)

and since she just loooovees the video clips I play, here's one just for her:



(I think I've posted that skit before actually, but it's one of my favorites.)

for my esteemed readers who haven't subscribed yet I would encourage you to do so before Monday so you can start off receiving the Daily Letters from the first issue. I'm not big into talking things up, but as far as I Know the structure I am pursuing with the Letter represents something fairly unique in the investment advisory genre.

you can subscribe with the Google Checkout button at the top of the blog (right below the header) or email trendandvalue@gmail.com and I will send you an invoice. rates are $28 per month or $65 for three months. the Letter is delivered via email in PDF format every business day. oh and subscriptions are non-recurring, so don't worry about that. email me at the address above if you've any questions or comments.

Announcing -- The Trend and Value Letter

It's time to cancel the premium cable to make room in your budget for Trend & Value's Daily Letter.

In 2007 we wrote private emails to friends and clients. In 2008 we started this blog. For 2009 we are launching a subscription service in the format of a daily letter.

Published every business day and emailed as a PDF attachment, the Letter will feature analysis of Equities, ETFs, Futures and Foreign Exchange.

The first Letter will be mailed Monday morning, January 5 2008.

The Subscription price is $28 per month or $65 for 3 months.

You are encouraged to review Trend & Value's market forecasts over the last couple of years and then determine whether we are worth a Dollar or so a day for even more rigorous and timely analysis.

Click on the button below to subscribe through Google Checkout, or email trendandvalue@gmail.com if you have any questions.

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Subscribe to our Daily Markets Letter:

$28.00 - One Month of Trend & Value $65.00 - Three Months of Trend & Value