Spot Gold -- Daily Trend Parameters

886 - Spot Gold

898 - upper equilibrium price
888 - primary equilibrium price
878 - lower equilibrium price

963 - primary resistance
808 - primary support

prevailing moving averages:

884 - 114 sma
914 - 49 sma
895 - 9 sma
893 - 9 ema

8/28/09 - primary inflection date
18 - weeks to inflection date

summary:

at 886 Spot Gold sits in the middle of the primary equilibrium zone. since yesterday's update the price has dropped below both the 9 sma and 9 ema, indicating a short term downtrend. additionally the ema has dropped below the sma, which indicates that momentum has turned bearish. with the 114 sma just a couple bucks below the current price, any more downside from here would jeopardize the stature of the overall uptrend that started last year. volatility continues to contract as the spread between the medium and longer moving averages narrows. waiting for some fireworks.

EUR/USD -- 30 minute RSI

interesting divergences, both on the decline and the rally.

newsletter sample

after I emailed out this morning's Trend & Value Letter to subscribers about 20 minutes ago, I opened up the PDF file myself and glanced over my work. nice looking newsletter, I said to myself. nice layout, nice font, nice graphs for eye-candy. the content's not too bad either.

here, here's the first page of this morning's report, see for yourself:

(please click image to view full size)

That's just one page, but it gives you an idea what I send subscribers five days a week.

...so wanna subscribe? click the Google Checkout button at the top of the blog or contact me for other payment options. (contact info on my blogger profile -->)

Spot Gold -- Daily Trend Parameters

Spot Gold -- Daily Trend Parameters

896 - Spot Gold

900 - upper equilibrium price
888 - primary equilibrium price
876 - lower equilibrium price

964 - primary resistance
807 - primary support

prevailing moving averages:

883 - 114 sma
916 - 49 sma
893 - 9 sma
896 - 9 ema

8/28/09 - primary inflection date
18 - weeks to inflection date

summary:

at 896 Spot Gold sits at the upper end of the primary equilibrium zone. price above 9 sma indicates minor uptrend. 9 ema above 9 sma indicates upward momentum prevails in the short term, though this would be called into question if the price slips below 9 ema. the price above the primary sma (114), below the secondary sma (49), right near the short sma (9) and within the lateral equilibrium zone together indicate an indecisive market. expect a forceful move toward primary support or resistance (which is unclear) once this stalemate is broken.

sp500 waves graph

another post to help out the googlers.

last year when I predicted the S&P would drop to around 666, my thought was that would complete a five wave bear market. 666 may hold -- at the moment I'm not sure -- but my revised wave count has the current rally as wave four with a final sell-off still to come. (and another question is from what level this sell-off starts... you should read my newsletter for my thoughts on that as they develop.)

point figure charts eur usd

someone is searching for pf charts this morning. here's a good one, each box is two points:



and here is an infamous ATR(1) for you to bookmark and enjoy for years to come:



I am currently short EUR/USD as part of a comprehensive multi-pair trade. sign up for my daily markets letter (button at top of blog) to learn more about this 'Balanced Trade'.

AAPL and gyroscopic whatever-the-fuckery

here I just spent hours tinkering with charts of AAPL for this morning's newsletter and I didn't even realize that 1) Apple reported earnings this morning, and 2) Smoking Securities already took care of business yesterday with this post. great post Chuck, keep it up.

and for you point and figure lovers, here's the updating ATR(1) for AAPL:



(I think I realize now that the ATR(1) idea I stole from SS....)

BIDU point and figure graph -- special request

here you go Sam, knock yerself out..



oh and here's the link if you want to play around with the pf

gold, point and figure chart -- search of the day

someone from Canada just arrived at the blog via this search query,

gold, point and figure chart

but the post featured on the results was about BAC, not the price of Gold. here is the standard pf chart for Gold from stockcharts:



that chart should keep updating automatically, so feel free to bookmark this post so you can check the progress on occasion.

as a bonus I'm going to show you an even more interesting graph to monitor. this is Gold too (symbol '$GOLD' on stockcharts) but instead of the traditional scaling each box takes the size of the latest ATR(1), so the entire chart will look very different day to day, depending on how volatile Gold is on that particular day.

a gift for Lucas

my first ever youtube video

Sixteen Tons

IOZ just got me hooked on Frankie Laine tunes. on youtube I found another one appropriate for the times...



You load sixteen tons an' what do you get?
Another day older and deeper in debt.
Oh Brother don't you call me cause I cain't go:
I owe my soul to the company store.

Darden Restaurants (DRI)

impressive rally, to be sure. but I wonder how much higher it could go.

Dollar Sentiment update

one of my preferred indicators is looking pretty bullish at the moment. the US Dollar index relative to the price of Gold is what I call 'Dollar Sentiment'.



nothing confirmed just yet, but the chart formation pleases the eye. here's the ratio from a longer term perspective:



still too much knee-jerk Dollar Bearishness pervading the Commentariat these days. and even as Gold continues to drip, I see too much wishful thinking that the correction will prove shallow, too many people viewing each down day as a buying opportunity, too many charties claiming the pattern in Gold over the last 13 months is some 'inverse head and shoulders'.

too many amateurs, in other words.

but at the same time, Gold's decline must accelerate significantly in the next week or two for my preferred scenario to retain a modicum of validity.

Update 10:06PM: looking at the long-term chart of the ratio's inverse I'm getting a similar, if slightly less severe, target than the dashed line offered above. Gold-USD ratio to between 7.50 and 7.25 is my best guess for now.

words, words, words

here is a question from a newsletter subscriber. my response is below:

I think your take on markets continues to be interesting. What do you read
to generate ideas or gain perspective on the markets?

Thanks.

I read as little as possible!

seriously, "Data First!" as I've been fond of saying...

but most of what I do read are either the other blogs I link to, or links readers send me. and every so often I'll pick up a Miami Herald print edition from a newsstand here or read the local paper. and about as frequently as that I'll browse the headlines on drudge, bloomberg, or the google news homepage.

Value Line Index relative to Silver -- 20 year chart

no commentary for you right now. just an interesting chart to ponder.

Thai Baht (THB) -- long term charts

I'm taking a look at the Thai Baht (THB) this evening. I plan to write a little about it in tomorrow morning's newsletter. here I am just posting as reference some 10 year charts of THB versus NOK, JPY, EUR, CHF and CAD.

(charts lifted from OZForex.)

Johnson & Johnson -- JNJ

we should have a close eye on how JNJ moves with the earnings release this morning. I'm not so concerned with whether the company does or does not meet expectations. my interest is more in what adjustments will be made, if any, to the share price in comparison to the new earnings numbers. how the market values JNJ from tomorrow forward will be very instructive for our view of the valuations structure of the market as a whole.

with a P/E of 11 and a yield of 3.6%, the company can be considered the epitome of current equity valuations. it is pretty typical of what investors are willing to pay for earnings. my hunch is that over time the P/E of the S&P 500 index as whole (currently at 12.66) will gravitate towards the prevailing P/E of JNJ. companies valued higher than JNJ will tend to see their P/Es deflate towards that of JNJ, while concerns that currently sport lower valuations will likely see further P/E reflation, particularly if they can prove their profitability the next couple quarters.



relative to the S&P, JNJ has been in a downtrend since the market bottomed last month. in fact, the ratio has mirrored the broader market pretty consistently the past couple years. so maybe the next turn in the ratio can provide us a clue as to when the overall market will shift direction.

the ratio is probing important support now, but if this doesn't hold then it will most likely approach that moving average on the chart.

Rehashing the Future

in this morning's newsletter I quoted some criticism that a reader (former reader actually, as he decided not to renew his subscription) had of my service. the gist of his complaint was that he felt I "spend way too much time rehashing good calls [I]'ve made in the past."

so I responded to him by saying, "if you can reference a couple instances of my rehashing simply for rehashing sake in the reports (ie bragging without any context to current outlook), I'll give you a free month's subscription. perhaps I can reform myself."

anyway, I also made that offer to all the other subscribers of the newsletter. furthermore I spent this morning's entire letter contemplating whether I was guilty of this sin, and if so, in what way.

although no-one so far has taken me up on the challenge to get a free month, I did get several emails from readers about the structure and content of the newsletter service. while each note is worth addressing, I do not want to waste any more space in the newsletter itself on this stuff, as we do have important business to take care of. so I will post the responses from readers here on the blog.

we start with a note from Mr P:

Dear Kyle

I would have felt no need to reply except I thought your letter this morning invited it.

I would say

1) I have no criticism at all of you "rehashing" and what you say of reappraising is surely right. (By the way I also thought you very lucid about markets being derivative and catalysing turning points).

2) I value your scepticism about gold - having been involved all the way from 2000 I do not need anymore (even good) bullish analysis.

3) I am increasingly interested in currencies to park a large cash component and I wonder whether these may give the tell from when we are going to move from deflation to inflation (perhaps many many months to go).
If I had any criticism it is that I would have liked you to have followed up more on this - and the NZD in particular so please put it in your indexes. NZD left the station almost at the same time as you first mentioned it and so far there has been no retest. If agriculture generally gets more separate from other commodities you would have thought it might seriously decouple from the AUD. As I suspect bank failures have still to worsen in the months ahead a country which really has a less vulnerable banking system would be a haven indeed.

4) It must be a great strain to write every day but it is much appreciated. I am terrible about remembering whether such and such a subscription renews automatically or otherwise. I would certainly like to continue to receive your work.

With thanks

heck, it must be quite a strain to read my stuff everyday too! but your interest in my work is much appreciated from my end.

after this correction plays out, I'll be more bullish on Gold than anyone. the more closely it follows my script in the near-term, the higher it will fly later on.

Also, I will accommodate your interest in the New Zealand Dollar the best I can in the near future. it is frustrating for both of us how NZD has been on a one way track the last few weeks. whether it can keep moving like this is uncertain.
-------

next up is a note from Ms F:

Good morning, Lucas.

I'm hoping I might serve you by chiming in from the bleachers in response to today's Letter.

you spend way too
> much time rehashing good calls you've made in the past. I was hoping you
> would concentrate more on the future & the related probabilities

The moment I read J's humble opinion, the voice in my head said 'rehashing good calls? bullshit'. Indeed, tho', given the offer of a free month, I wish you were guilty as opined, as I would be working on the documentation now...

But, given J's stated hoping you would concentrate more on the future & the related probabilities, I presume to suggest that J wants you to direct him to the holy grail; he wants high probability trades.

Lucas, instead of focusing on the unsubstantiable allegation about purposeless rehashing, I suggest that you recognize J's apparent disappointment about your failure to deliver high probability trades, which I do not recall your serving up in your blog which preceded your newsletter (at least during the period when I read it).

Lucas, let it go. Just do what you do and be your authentic self; and don't worry about my or anyone else's expectations. There will be some of us with whom you strike a chord; and many others to whom you will have no appeal.

I have told you before why I read you...I want to learn from you...a student here...Lucas, I can truthfully say that I have not read a single Letter which the voice in my head has adjudged a waste of time. How's that? I've experienced lots of bewilderment and wtf moments and delight about your elegance and brilliance and amusement about and empathy for your struggle sometimes to show up... and for me, the time spent with your Letter has always been worthwhile.

Lucas, just another presumptuous view from an appreciative reader...

regards

you are probably right that J wanted more in the way of explicit trades. that's understandable, I suppose. there are opportunities to trade based on my analysis but the Letters are not currently focused on frequently recommending specific positions. if people just want explicit trade recommendations and nothing else then that could be arranged, but that would require a different format for the service. but it has occurred to me over time that actively trading (ie day- or swing-trading) based on another person's recommendations is a recipe for failure. for one, there is the issue of getting the information out to the readers in a timely manner. and two, I just don't see how anyone could be successful trading "another man's game" like that. even if the recs are spot on, the fact they are acquired 'secondhand' would make it difficult to properly exploit the opportunities, as the all-important aspect of self-belief is missing from the equation.
-------

here is an email response from Dr C:

Hi Kyle,

You know my abilities better than I know my own, so you know my strengths and limitations. That said, it would never have occurred to me to make the remark that your reader made, and I can not identify with it at all. On the contrary, your take on the markets is completely new and thought provoking to me. I am thinking especially of all the ratios that you emphasize. That is completely new to me and instructive. Though I must admit as a practical matter, I have no idea what to do with ratios, i.e., how to set up a trade that takes advantage of them. That might be worth spelling out. But I read your letter every day with pleasure and in the spirit of learning something new.

Also, does anybody realize that you put that letter out EVERY DAY?! Holy shit. That is an enormous commitment and service. Your offer to adjust to what the readers want is sensible within reason, but in my book you are doing an excellent job.

Sorry I couldn't be more help with that Padovian physics article. The Abstract is supposed to be a concise summary of the content of the article. If it was, I did not get it. Perhaps it is a Chinese style. Or perhaps it does not contain major content. I can't tell from the Abstract.

Rock on,

I will give a tutorial on trading price ratios in the near future. thank you for that suggestion.
-----

and finally some comments from Mr R, who I have Known longer than most of my other readers, as he was a client of mine back when I was a precious metals broker.

Some thoughts so far.
First,
I am in it for the long run as I do enjoy your writing. However, if you are serious about having this a long term subscription base, I'd suggest stop some of the funny and swearing stuff. I personally I don't care and even enjoy it, but if you are to succeed you need to be a bit more professional.

Second,
People buy these type of subscriptions to make money and few more recommendations other than Forex type probably are appropriate. Only a very small part of the population is interested or cares about $ trades.

Third,
Maybe too many charts. I suggest cutting back and EXPLAINING better what that means, to you the investor, and what you should look at buying to take advantage of what the chart signals.

Fourth,
Have a chart of a few key recommendations and the track record. Then it is always there to see as part of the report, but you have to say nothing.


Thanks

you may have a point about the swearing, so I'll see about toning it down. but the funny stays. when I lose the ability to make myself and my clients chuckle a few times a week, then I'm out of this business.

I analyze and make recommendations based on what I am interested in, and what I am good at. I spent a long time coming up with the currency trade in question and I have a lot of confidence in it. if people aren't interested in this one, then they can be patient until something else comes up in the markets that I feel has a similarly high probability of success. there are many ways to invest/speculate, but my preferred way is to take action on a few well considered opportunities a year. this currency trade is one of them. later in the year I may see a great opportunity in Metals, or Bonds or whatever. but when I look at the current dynamics of the foreign exchange I see opportunity.

and it may be that more people are interested in currencies than you would think. over half my business comes from people outside the United States, so perhaps the rest of the world has relatively more interest in currency market conditions than Americans do.

I too often feel that I rely too much on the charts. but since I primarily analyze the markets with a 'data first' approach, the charts are necessary. I assure that examining market data is more profitable than reading the news. but I will make a greater effort to explain what I see in the charts in the future.

when I first started the service I kept up 'model portfolios' for stocks, futures and forex. it was a huge pain in the ass. so about a month into it I stopped that, and basically told the readership that they are the investors/traders, not me. I'm just yer analyst. on the one hand that put more responsibility on the subscriber to interpret my work, but on the other hand it has freed me up to do my job, namely analyze the markets.

but there may be a middle route between keeping up full model portfolios and doing nothing at all. I'll give it some thought.
------

that's it! now I got to get to work on rehashing the future for y'all yet again.

Trend & Value Letter -- another freebie for you at IKN

Otto got his hands on another one of my daily reports, and has made it available for public download. follow the link below to get your free copy.

4/12/09
Another Free Trend&Value Letter (but it's your last chance)

this is just a sample of the type of analysis that I send to subscribers five mornings a week. please evaluate what I have to offer. if you like it, you can sign up for a one month trial for $28. I also offer a three month subscription for only $65.

while my analysis isn't always 100% accurate, I don't Know of anyone else who has had a better track record forecasting the direction of the major financial markets these past couple years. this may sound like hubris, but frankly if I Knew of an analyst with a better overall grasp of the markets than I, then I would quit this business and go back to writing poetry and philosophy. (there's more money in that stuff than writing a financial newsletter, I'll tell ya!)

so go get your free copies of my newsletter from Otto and then come back to sign up with the payment thingie at the top of this blog page. (or email me for other payment options -- trendandvalue@gmail.com)

again, here's the latest freebie at IKN:


4/12/09
Another Free Trend&Value Letter (but it's your last chance)

and here's another one he posted a couple days ago:


4/9/09
Free for you: Today's Trend & Value Report from Lucas

Thank You for your consideration, I look forward to serving you.

best regards,

Kyle Ledbetter Lucas

666 -- the lucky number

I got a search hit for something about Padovan Numbers this evening. browsing through some of the other results on that search, I came across this site on numerology that says '666 is a member of the Indices of prime Padovan sequence.' now I have no idea what that means of course, but I'm sure it must be cool.

even cooler though is that '666 is the sum of the squares of the first seven prime numbers.'

they also say it is the sum of all the numbers on a roulette wheel. (and btw, there are 37 slots on a European roulette wheel. 37 happens to be the next prime Padovan number after 7...)

and apparently the Chinese think 666 is a lucky number, and since according to the financial press they are in absolute control of the World Economy And Every Single Asset Class The World-Over, the recent bottom in the Stock Markt and the future bottom in Gold shouldn't be a surprise.

RGLD relative to Gold bullion

yesterday, Otto wrote a nice piece on the relationship between the price of Gold itself and the performance of Gold Mining companies. click the link below to read his analysis

4/11/09
Gold and gold miners: A chart study of correlations

his conclusion was that Royal Gold offered the best positive leverage to bullion prices. that seems generally valid to me, though I would like to point out even RGLD has broadly lagged the price of bullion since the beginning of 2003. the charts I include here should make this plain:


(click image to view full size)

some observations:

1) RGLD seems to have just completed a 'Five Wave' bull run.

2) after significant out-performance of RGLD to bullion in 2001 and 2002, the RGLD-Gold ratio has never since hit a new high.

3) the major tops in the share price of RGLD and its ratio to bullion tend to coïncide.

4) further, these major tops have so far occurred at three year intervals. (notice vertical lines on chart.)

5) the tops and bottoms in the share price and the ratio to bullion seem to have more relation to the investment sentiment surrounding Gold than the actual Dollar price of Gold.

6) RGLD has a P/E ratio well above 30 and pays a shit dividend. I'm sure there is some 'reason' for this overvaluation because it's a 'royalty' company or something (feel free to enlighten me), but unless the bull clique in Precious Metals can find a new marketing pitch right soon, dumb-ass investors (of course I'm not talking about you! it's the Other I have in mind...) who moved into the sector the last several months will start to realise that there are plenty of 'solid' companies trading at P/Es of 10 or less and actually paying decent dividends.

so if I am right about this transitory investment environment and Gold declines further while cheap piece of shit companies get reflated, then there exists a real potential for a company like Royal Gold to get the living crap kicked out of it.

beta works both ways, yo.

but on a more general note, what is with this obsession with owning Gold Miners for 'leverage'? why fuck around? if you want leverage to Gold, trade Gold futures.

's&p 500 bear market bottom 666' -- search of the day

got a hit a bit ago from this search:

s&p 500 bear market bottom 666

the only reason I am linking to this search now is that I am pissed that I was not at the top of the results. but that should change now that I have used the exact key words in the title of this post.

newcomers to Trend & Value should click the link below for the original 666 post.

Saturday, November 8, 2008
666 - S&P 500 and the 13 Year Cycle

S&P 500 Index Volume vs SPY Volume

a subscriber writes:

Hi Kyle,

not sure if you are familiar with this site, but here is an interesting article about the various components of the Crowd.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/incredibly-shrinking-market-liquidity.html

golly, this 'Zero Hedge' blog is getting popular, isn't it?

anyway, among other things in the link above, the author points to declining volume on SPY, the big ETF that tracks the S&P 500 index. I notice however that volume on the actual underlying stocks that comprise the S&P has held up fairly well recently.



while the volume moving average has turned lower, overall volume has hardly evaporated.

I also notice that the relationship between SPY volumes and those of the underlying index has subtly shifted over the last few months.


(click image to view full size)

much of the volume on ETFs in general, and SPY in particular, stems from hedging operations, therefore it makes sense for SPY volume relative to actual index volume to increase and decrease in tandem with market volatility. the inverse correlation between the VIX and relative volume of $SPX to SPY is pretty apparent.



these observations do not necessarily contradict the Zero Hedge liquidity thesis. frankly, I also think the Stock Markt will be in for more rough times after this rally has run its course. the question is when does the rally end? it could be pretty soon, but despite the incessant Perma Bear jaw-boning over the last couple weeks, the structure of the Stock Markt as per the indicators I track remains rather positive. it may be that the Markt turns swiftly lower without pre-warning from the indicators, so traders with a long-side bias should be careful to employ proper risk management as the indexes approach our price targets. however, traders with a short-side bias would do well to keep on the sidelines until the Markt approaches our targets and/or some indicators turn bearish.

Update: I should mention that this is the type of analysis I usually reserve for the newsletter, but since some friends have been nice enough to point out that I 'absolutely suck at marketing,' I figured I should put something in public that makes it sound like I have some clue about the workings of financial markets. if you think you might find value in reading this type of analysis on a daily basis, please subscribe to my newsletter. use the payment button at the top of the blog, or contact me with questions. (contact info on my blogger profile -- click here.)

Correction 4/11/09 10:35PM: this kind of embarrassing, but I mismatched two different Zero Hedge posts above. the reader sent me a link to one, and I some how relinked it to another and commented on the wrong post. oops. hard to keep up with Mr Durden's hundred posts a week... anyway, here is the link for the post my reader had in mind:

Friday, April 10, 2009
The Incredibly Shrinking Market Liquidity, Or The Upcoming Black Swan Of Black Swans

as a friend noted, "i thought the whole point of black swans was........."

Otto is spreading misinformation about me

this dude at Inca Kola News rips off one of my private letters to clients (God Knows how he got his hands on it), posts on the 'net for all to see, and then proceeds to lie about my Stock Markt predictions.

I called the bottom in the S&P within a point, bitch! as in One (1) point. not two, or three or 1.5.

anyway, here's the post that wanna-be Latino wrote about me, see for yerself:

4/9/09
Free for you: Today's Trend & Value Report from Lucas

Update: my girlfriends reaction to this post: "Lame. Totally lame."

Dramatisations of Deflation

I am using Wile E Coyote as an idealtype in this morning's newsletter. I'm posting this video as reference for my readers.



I can't find the exact scene I was looking for, but this one's still good.

Bullidex on the Up

despite every bear with a business card calling the 'top' for this rally in the Stock Markt over the last week or so, a key indicator continues to rise. check out Mr Amadeus's latest Bullidex update at the Smoking Securities blog:

S&P 500 Bullidex

cus it's Wednesday...

and on the way, I made up a little hum...

fuck you Twitter. lame. account deleted. eom

Gold-Silver Ratio -- Chart

I'm working on a comprehensive update on Precious Metals for the readers of my newsletter, but I thought I'd throw up a chart of the Bimetallic Ratio here. The dotted line is just a near-term possibility.



and for those with an interest in mining stocks, I suggest checking the latest post on the HUI at biiwii. Gary covers the miners better than anyone. today is no exception.

Tuesday, April 7, 2009
HUI - Daily status

Pop Culture Diplomacy?

Lucas drew my attention to this recent commentary on Japan :
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=ah3SiUX_VI.M&refer=home

The take home message seems to be:

"The entire fabric of the economy needs an overhaul. At the moment, though, Japanese voters are getting gimmicks like “ambassadors of cute” in schoolgirl outfits and polka dots."

"The ruling Liberal Democratic Party is quite enterprising when it comes to avoiding painful and sweeping structural changes. Instead, it comes up with a bewildering array of policy bandages -- many of which are little more than gimmickry."


I dont understand how selling this image, or even these products can help the Japanese economy. No doubt there is a domestic market for these products, but can this stuff sell abroad? Sure there are some Japanophiles in every country who watch the cartoons, read the comic books, and buy the stupid-cute stuff, but this is not like selling Toyotas and other gadgets. Can you name a Japanese cartoon? Do you know what the "Harajuku style" is? Probably not. Do you know what a Corolla or Prius is? Did you own a Sony walkman or have a Japanese brand flatscreen TV? Even if the traditional Japanese exports are tanking, selling this younger-wierder-cartoonydreamy subculture will not lead to anything.

'baltic dry index & dead cat bounce'

a client just sent sent me a note. quoted below.

In case you did not see this indicator, I thought it might be of interest vis a vis the basis for the current bear rally.

Baltic Dry Index dropped 31% this month - interesting story comparing this latest bear market bounce in equities vs. the one in November. Apparently with that one, which ended in early January featured a rising Baltic Dry Index (considered the most impeccable indicator of economic strength). In the current stock mkt run up, the BDI is actually down 31%:

"Additionally, whereas CNBC would chirp every 5 minutes when the Baltic Dry was up, up and away beginning in January, very little attention has been brought to the fact that the BDIY has dropped over 31% over the past month."

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/time-for-fizzle.html….

not that I'm willing to put much money on it, but my guess is the current pump has a little further to go. shipping prices may well be a leading indicator, but financial markets are not about prices paid for real goods and services. hard to judge the near-term really, but I'm keeping tabs the best I can in the newsletter.

the penultimate pinnacle of pop-culture?

while my macro-historical framework dates the 'Pinnacle of Pop-Culture' at the release of Dr Dre's The Chronic, this performance might (possibly) be considered a precursor. worth contemplating at least.

repost: Quote of the Day (02/11/09)

“Like if you threw up and the doctor gave you an enema of your own vomit.”

-- my girlfriend's comment on the stimulus and bailouts.

Love those shin-guards!

Friday morning video for y'all.




according to the youtube, the date of this performance was 9/10/01. maybe this is what they mean when they say they hate us for our freedoms.

(this one's for you, Tierchen!)

Australia’s Trade Surplus Widens on Exports of Gold -- Bloomberg

believe it or not, I actually Know what I'm talking about on occasion.


Australia’s Trade Surplus Widens on Exports of Gold

Silver -- 30 minute bar chart

interesting formation on silver so far this week. this triangle thingie comes to an apex at about 8:15 this morning. so maybe by the time you read this the price will have found some direction. we shall see!


(click image to view full size.)

EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, EUR/USD -- Daily Charts

here's some charts of the Euro versus the Australian, New Zealand and US Dollars. I'm sure the Euro will get another bounce at some point, but it looks like my outlook is on track so far.

click on each image to view full size.







wanna Know which currencies to buy and which to sell? try subscribing to my newsletter. (use payment button at the top of blog.)

IKN: "massive buying in Ecuador" -- Gold-Silver Ratio

according to Otto at Inca Kola News, Ecuador's President Ralph 'the Belt' Correa will announce on his radio show a plan to end Dollarisation and adopt the Gold Standard, as a cornerstone of his reëlection campaign.

Studmuffin was quoted last night as saying, 'everywhere I go, the gente tell me, "yo Studmuffin, fuck those Gringos and their paper dineros. we want the Nuevo Sucre del Oro!" so starting mañana, The Ecuador will only accept .9999 fine bullion for our Crude Oil and tasty bananas.'

the news has sent the Bimetallic Ratio to a new multi-generational high, IKN reports:

4/1/09
Chart of the day is.........

.....the Gold / Silver ratio.