SLV (Silver ETF) -- Plastic Speedline

on the time-based chart:



on the equivolume chart:

the League of Haitians

good name for a band, I think. didn't turn up any results on google, so I figured I'd throw it up.

Morning Trendline -- USD/JPY 3 hour plus RSI

same chart I posted last week, but updated. don't forget to subscribe to the daily newsletter to get my actual forecasts for the Dollar and other markets of interest. I just published a forecast for the Nippy this morning. last week I did the Euro and Gold. 'today is different / tomorrow the same...'

Everyone would gather on the Twenty Fourth of May...

happy Victoria's Day to all my Canadian friends and readers, eh. and yes I Know it was 'observed' last week. whatevea.


here's one of my favorite songs to kick off the Summer:



additionally, here in Ecuador 24 de Mayo is celebrated as one of the many independence type days. back in 1822, General Sucre kicked some Spanish ass on that little hill I can see across town, the one they call 'Pichincha'.

and of course tomorrow there is some official holiday in the States, though I can never remember what the significance of that is supposed to be. if you are grilling, I recommend first fire-roasting red bell-peppers (this takes a lot longer than you think), then as the fire hits its hottest point place your marinated, untrimmed, uncut two to four pound skirt steak on the grill. blacken each side for as much as five minutes each, then raise the rack and cover with a pan or something until the middle has reached your desired temperature.

meanwhile de-skin the peppers, cut cheese into thin slices, and when the big piece of meat is ready place it on a wooden cutting board and slice thin for sandwiches. I assure you that this is a much tastier and economical way to serve all your guests than trying to grill steaks for each person individually. and aside from the meat slices, the roasted peppers, good cheese and good bread, you should not need any other condiments or sauces or vegetables or nothing. (if someone asks for ketchup, kick them the fuck off yer property!)

but unfortunately, Doctor's orders have me confined to bed for two days. Friday night at the bar I was in a very competitive match of futbolín ('foosball'). The score was 8 to 8 against the reigning bar champions. all of a sudden my left knee totally collapsed from under me and I fell to the floor. Candice checked my patella, and it was still in place, so after a minute I stood back up and returned to finish the soccer match. of course we ended up still losing by a score of 11-9.

the main problem, according to Candice and the Doctor that came to see me the next day is that I continued to play foosball for another three hours instead of coming home and resting my leg. anyway I hope the injury isn't permanent.

one other thing about today's dates, or zone of dates -- happy birthday Tierchen! (you know I can never exactly recall what day it is..)

word of the day -- Oversquare

daily equivolume chart of MOO, the Agribusiness ETF:

word of the day -- Island

that's USO, the Crude ETF. five minute equivolume.

too early to read too too much into it. but needless to say, it caught my eye

Canadian Dollar Trend -- Update

seven waves it is. or so it looks to me. that's all she wrote, or at least all I'm writing this morning. I'm pooped. read this post from a couple weeks ago if you want to Know what I am getting at.

another trendline -- USD/NOK 3 hour RSI

(click to view full size)

Morning Trendline -- USD/JPY 3 hour RSI

(click image to view full size)

padovan ratios+Forex market prediction -- search of the day (or a look at EUR/USD from a proportional perspective)

last night someone from an undisclosed location arrived at Trend & Value from the following search:

padovan ratios+Forex market prediction

now I can honestly say that the only relevant results on that search were for things that I have written. so either I am ahead of the times for incorporating the Padovan Sequence and its limiting ratios into the price analysis of financial markets or I am just a crazy chasing butterflies or windmills or cliches.

in any case, I am going to take this opportunity to analyze the EUR/USD currency pair from a proportional perspective.

in Architectural Theory, there are two major, competing Proportional Systems. one is based on the Fibonacci Sequence and its limiting ratio of 1.618 (aka Phi, aka the Golden Number). the other, less well Known system, is the one based on the Padovan Sequence and its limiting ratio of 1.3247 (aka P, aka the Plastic Number).

in the world of price analysis, Phi and its derivatives have been used to generate price targets, resistances and whatnot for decades. what started as a well guarded secret shared by a handful of traders has attained the level of a ubiquitous public usage. 'Fibonacci Trading' is hyped on innumerable websites, in books, and every charting service features Fib retracement tools, 'fans' and such. this is all well and good, in fact up until recently I myself was a big Fibonacci enthusiast.

but then last year I happened upon the Padovan Sequence. initially I started to apply the ratios derived from the Sequence as simple support and resistance levels, in much the same way that everyone is using the Fib ratios now. but as my thinking progressed it came to me that an integrated 'System of Proportion' based on the Plastic Number could be devised and applied to the analysis of securities transactions. and not just for simple price analysis, but for the proportional relationship between the dimensions of Price, Volume, and Time.

then just recently I have come to the understanding that by using solely the Plastic System to the exclusion of the Golden System (or vis-a-versa for that matter) I was erecting a needless schism. in reality, the interaction of the two systems offers the most fertile grounds for investigation.

before I continue I should clarify that Proportional Analysis is first and foremost a descriptive endeavor. the primary task is to assess what has happened so far. only after we have described the historical development of a market in terms of proportion can we attempt to extrapolate the underlying 'proportional sequence' into the future.

now obviously this projection of the past into the future is prone to failure. this is true whether one is using Proportional Analysis or some other means of guessing. I happen to think that my application of the principles of proportion to market analysis, while still in the early experimental stage of development, is a very promising framework from which to make projections of the future. but for all its elegance and intellectual trappings, it is just a tool to help us guess.

with that said, let's have a look at EUR/USD. perhaps the recent 'architecture' of the exchange rate can help us make a guess about what is around the corner.

here is a chart of EUR/USD over the past year:



the solid yellowish lines are the retracement targets based on the Padovan ratios (hence forth called 'Plastic' targets):

1.3239
1.3535
1.3926
1.4444
1.5113

the dashed blue lines are the .618 and .382 Fibonacci retracements (at 1.4623 and 1.3747), while the thick white line is the 50% level (1.4185).

you can see that when the rate got jacked up in December the rate actually exceeded both the .57 and the .618 targets. but that last push above the target happened briefly in the 'overnight' session. it might be worth noting that in US trading a high was recorded at 1.4504 (see this chart) right in between the .57 and .618 lines.

then into the first part of this year the rate drifted back down for nearly a full retracement of the previous advance.

backing up for a moment I want to point out that the initial decline last year from July into September came in at .2157. the September bounce was .0983, while the final decline last fall was .2536. the total decline last year was .3710.

the rally into December extended .2390, and from December to March the decline was .2264.

those are the ranges of the five identifiable 'waves' into March of this year. now let's measure the three waves we have seen thus far since the March low. after we have those figures we can compare them to the previous five waves.

the March rally measured .1283, the correction into April .0853, while the latest advance has covered .0945.

the March rally was 59.48% (~3/5) of wave one (w1), 130.52% (~13/10) of w2, 50.59% (1/2) of w3, 53.68% (7/13) of w4, and 56.67% (right between 4/7 and 9/16) that of w5.

the correction into April was 39.55% (2/5) w1, 86.78% (13/15) w2, 33.64% (1/3) w3, 35.69% (5/14) w4, 37.68% (3/8) w5, and 66.49% (2/3) of the March rally which we can label 'wA'.

now I Know this is getting tedious, and if your eyes are glazing over, I don't blame you, mine are too... we are almost ready to put this compilation of data to use. but first let's complete this exercise by comparing the extent to date of the latest advance to all the other discernible phases that preceded it.

as mentioned, the recent rally from 1.2886 to the higher earlier today at 1.3831 comes in at .0945 points. so the rally has been 43.81% (7/16) w1, 96.13% (1/1 essentially) w2, 37.26% (3/8) w3, 39.54% (2/5) w4, 41.74% (5/12) w5, 73.66% (about 11/15) wA, and 110.8% (10/9) of wB.

now at this point you are either bored to death and have probably long since stopped reading, or you are actually interested in how I am going to use all these fractions and stuff to arrive at a forecast for the euro. therefore I am going to cut this post short and continue the investigation as a feature of tomorrow morning's Trend & Value Letter.

I didn't intend for this post to be a 'teaser' for the subscription service, but so it goes. if the forecast I make is accurate, that alone should be worth the cost of the One Month trial price of $28 (subscribe with the payment button at the top of the blog). and if the forecast turns out to be in error at least you'll have the opportunity to evaluate the method I am using and make your own improvements. I look forward to the day when others come along to perfect the application of the method.

...so, sign up for the newsletter already. I gotta get to work.

British Pound charts

GBP has been getting pumped hard in the news the last couple days. I haven't taken an interest in the Pound in quite sometime, mainly because the currency just doesn't interest me these days.

but all the big banks are claiming to be bullish, at least that is what they are telling the journalists, so I thought it might be time to take a peek at the charts. might be a good shorting opportunity coming before long. aside from its previous oversold condition I just can't see much reason to like GBP.

GBP/USD has climbed to 1.55 this morning. I there are a couple resistance targets about here, but the major targets are in the 1.60 to 1.62 zone. support should be pretty strong around 1.46.

S&P 500 monthly MACD -- search of the day

just got a blog hit from this google query:

S&P 500 monthly MACD

the search yielded this post:

Saturday, February 28, 2009
S&P 500 MACD Histograms (monthly)

here are the same histograms as on the previous post, only updated:



well, we have certainly seen some improvement the last few months. we will have to revisit the histograms again after the next major correction in the market takes hold. if at that time we see substantial divergences then that would be a good sign that the bear market has run its course.

Evening Trendlines -- BVN

when volume and volume related indicators persistently diverge from the prevailing price trend, chickens eventually take their cues and come home to roost. the problem is that the price/volume relationship of a security can deteriorate for quite a while before the price finally responds.

evening trendline -- KGC Volume

he didn't win the Pimp of the Year Award for nothin'

from Bloomberg:

Paulson Told Bankers to Take U.S. Taxpayer Aid or Be ‘Exposed’

and in case you missed the awards show live here's the video one more time:

newsletter excerpt regarding FCX

The following is a short excerpt from this morning's Trend & Value Letter. frankly, I am posting this to the blog because it rehashes what looks to be a good call I made recently. so the idea is to impress you so you sign up for the service with the payment button at the top of the blog. the newsletter is mailed to subscribers every business morning and covers a variety of markets. the size of each issue ranges between 1000 and 2000 words, and usually includes a few (sometimes several) price charts.

[begin excerpt]

If your intention has been to short Stocks to profit from the next bear phase, I do hope that you took advantage of the irrational strength in so many issues these past weeks. I have highlighted some opportunities in these pages, and at the moment all my suggestions should be showing a profit if acted upon. This is the advantage of taking action in a timely manner, because now that it suddenly cool again to be a bear, a lot of traders will be trying to chase stocks lower. They might get lucky, the market may just collapse without an intervening bounce. But just as likely the market will respond with a major whipsaw. I think that most of the symbols that I have suggested shorting have seen their tops, but there is a distinct possibility that a retest, or near retest, of those highs is in the cards. I don't Know that for sure, but given that possibility, I am glad that most of my short selling suggestions were issued when each security was trading very near its high.

Take Freeport McMoran (FCX) for example. Last Wednesday morning I wrote the following note:

Well here we are and FCX is right at 50. Is this the time to short? Could be, or at least pretty close. The price is rising into what should be a stiff resistance zone amid a declining trend in volume. At 50 the share price is right in the middle of its trading range in 2006. 50 may have been a legit price when copper was trading above $3, but it seems a little rich these days.

In this market you just never Know, but I think the chance are strong that FCX is looking to top in the near future. 51.21 is the .3247 retrace target, considering that Copper itself hit a wall at its .3247 target last month, this ratio could very well impede FCX from further advance. I look for FCX to decline to at least 35 or perhaps 30.

FCX opened later that morning at 51.82 and quickly raced up to a high of 52.99. The low of the day was 51.23, the close 51.85. Pretty classic gap-up-climax-doji-whatever top.



Now unless you are strictly a short-term trader, I don't see any reason to cover at 46, 45 or even 40. But is it safe to initiate a short position here in the mid-40s? I am not so sure. It depends really on how much upside you are willing to risk. I do not have a particularly pellucid read on the situation, but I don''t really see why FCX couldn't get a brief bounce back above 50. If that were to happen then I would probably view it as another shorting opportunity. So if you want to short this one, but haven't yet, your options are to short at 46 (or where ever) and risk the trade going against you 10 percent or even more, or you can 'hope' the price does retrace back up there so you can sell at what should be a lower risk opportunity. Neither of the options are nearly as attractive as having sold above 50 to begin with.

In any event, my 35 to 30 downside target for FCX remains, but the timing and trajectory are fairly murky.

[end excerpt]
------------------

. . .so, that is the kind of stuff you get when you pay me money, though I should point out that I do not make explicit trading suggestions that often. I mostly analyze the major markets and leave it up to you to determine if/how you use the forecasting guidance provided.

Metallic Pump*

take yer pick

*Otto's phrase

Platonic Bubble

28, 65, 49, 114, 86, 200, 67, 100, 33

fractions list

I am posting this list of fractions with decimalized equivalents for my own reference. it should come in handy for the Proportional Analysis I do.

7
13/2 = 6.50
6
11/2 = 5.50
16/3 = 5.333
5
14/3 = 4.667
9/2 = 4.50
13/3 = 4.333
4
15/4 = 3.75
11/3 = 3.667
7/2 = 3.50
10/3 = 3.333
13/4 = 3.25
16/5 = 3.20
3
14/5 = 2.80
11/4 = 2.75
8/3 = 2.667
13/5 = 2.60
5/2 = 2.50
12/5 = 2.40
7/3 = 2.333
16/7 = 2.286
9/4 = 2.25
11/5 = 2.20
13/6 = 2.166
15/7 = 2.143
2
15/8 = 1.875
13/7 = 1.857
11/6 = 1.833
9/5 = 1.80
16/9 = 1.778
7/4 = 1.75
12/7 = 1.714
5/3 = 1.667
13/8 = 1.625
8/5 = 1.60
11/7 = 1.571
14/9 = 1.556
3/2 = 1.50
16/11 = 1.455
13/9 = 1.444
10/7 = 1.429
7/5 = 1.40
11/8 = 1.375
15/11 = 1.364
4/3 = 1.333
13/10 = 1.30
9/7 = 1.29
14/11 = 1.273
5/4 = 1.25
11/9 = 1.222
6/5 = 1.20
13/11 = 1.182
7/6 = 1.166
15/13 = 1.154
8/7 = 1.143
9/8 = 1.13
10/9 = 1.111
11/10 = 1.10
12/11 = 1.091
13/12 = 1.083
14/13 = 1.077
15/14 = 1.071
16/15 = 1.067
1
15/16 = .938
14/15 = .933
13/14 = .929
12/13 = .923
11/12 = .917
10/11 = .909
9/10 = .90
8/9 = .889
7/8 = .875
13/15 = .867
6/7 = .857
11/13 = .846
5/6 = .833
9/11 = .818
13/16 = .813
4/5 = .80
11/14 = .786
7/9 = .778
10/13 = .769
3/4 = .75
11/15 = .733
8/11 = .727
5/7 = .714
7/10 = .70
9/13 = .692
11/16 = .688
2/3 = .666
9/14 = .643
7/11 = .636
5/8 = .625
8/13 = .615
3/5 = .60
7/12 = .583
4/7 = .571
9/16 = .563
5/9 = .556
6/11 = .545
7/13 = .538
8/15 = .533
1/2 = .50
7/15 = ,467
6/13 = .462
5/11 = .455
4/9 = .444
7/16 = .438
3/7 = .429
5/12 = .417
2/5 = .40
5/13 = .385
3/8 = .375
4/11 = .364
5/14 = .357
1/3 = .333
5/16 = .313
4/13 = .308
3/10 = .30
2/7 = .286
3/11 = .273
4/15 = .267
1/4 = .25
3/13 = .231
2/9 = .222
3/14 = .214
1/5 = .20
3/16 = .188
2/11 = .182
1/6 = .166
2/13 = .154
1/7 = .143

noch eine trendlinie -- DB

Morning Trendline -- UNG-SLV ratio

Sunday Morning TrendLine -- SPY

US Consumer Credit and Imports from China -- take two

on the previous post Otto commented,

But these are YoY numbers, not absolutes. Sure that's a serious import dump, but imports are still much hgher in FY09 than they were in the 1990-2002 median years.

Or am i being dumb tonight?

more like I was not clear on the point I was trying to make.

I was trying to highlight the severity of the contraction in imports from China compared to the (so far) mild slowdown in US Consumer Credit, with the point that if things are this bad for imports now, God help China if an actual debt deflation hits the American economy.

here are charts of the absolute figures for Consumer Credit Outstanding and Imports from China:





of interest to us is the sensitivity of the import figures to changes in the credit figures.

US Consumer Credit and Imports from China

here is an inspirational chart for you:



and compare it to this one over the same period:



now the year-on-year change in Total (US) Consumer Credit Outstanding hasn't even turned negative. some debt deflation!

I wonder what would happen to US imports from China if there were an actual contraction of consumer credit?

GRMN

I decided to do a milder version of the high short interest and insider buying stock screen. instead of >20% short interest I lowered it to >10%. this yielded 9 results. Garmin, the GPS device company has the largest market cap of the nine, so I thought I'd take a quick look at it.



back when shares were trading in the 100+ range insiders were selling like crazy. but Friday, a director by the name of Thomas McDonnell bought 20,000 shares. this right after the stock dropped sharply on worse than expected earnings.



GRMN is selling for about 10x forward earnings. that sounds about right, as long as the company can meet expectations next time around. I haven't a clue whether that will be the case, but apparently this McDonnell guy has at least a little confidence.

now 20,000 shares is a drop in the bucket compared to all the selling the CEO and others did back in 2007. if some more insiders purchase shares here or on more weakness then I would more excited about GRMN. so we'll put it on our watch list.

IGA -- Where Have All the Discounts Gone?

at the apex of the liquidity panic last October you could buy closed-end equity funds at 30 percent discounts to net asset value. at the time, I suggested ING Global Advantage and Premium Opportunity Fund (IGA), which was selling at 32 percent discount to NAV.*

well, I happened upon IGA here while looking at Friday's list of 50/200-day MA Crossovers, so I clicked over to ETFConnect to check what kind of discount the fund has currently. -2.64 percent now.

a lot of closed-end funds haven't come back as close to par as IGA, but it seems as though most of the fear discount in the market has evaporated. this is yet another indication to me that this General Liquidity Rally everyone is enjoying has mostly worked out the excessive negative sentiment that accrued during the bear market. this lack of concern is starting to concern me.


--------
*see this post:

Saturday, October 11, 2008
Shopping for Big Discounts -- IGA

Padovan Day 05/07/09

a Padovan Date Sequence doesn't come around very often, but today, or yesterday technically for me, was one of them, at least in American nomenclature.

in honor of the occasion I am posting publicly a chart of PBR I drew up for Friday morning's Trend & Value Letter (subscribe with the payment button at the top of the blog):



years from now, the Proportional System based on the Plastic Number will be as popular as the Golden Number in the world of price analysis. readers of this blog and my newsletter have a distinct advantage over the mainstream by Knowing about the system already. start experimenting with the system on your own, and if you have some extra cash, subscribe to my daily markets letter (if you haven't already).

Golden Cross as Contrary Indicator -- a look at Goldman Sachs (GS)

in the jargon of Technical Analysis (oh how I hate that term) a 'Golden Cross' occurs when the 50 day moving average of a security crosses above the 200 day moving average. in the world of vulgar 'Trend Following' this is considered a bullish indicator / buy signal.

but here at Trend & Value, we (I) tend to look upon this indicator in a contrary manner, particularly in the context of an overall bear market in equities, as it tells us that a vast portion of the recovery in the share price has already occurred.

well I saw some headline about a controversy surrounding a former or not so former Goldman Sachs employee today, so I thought to take a look at how shares of GS were performing. down some today, but what popped out at me was the moving average cross-over.



this indicator, like any other, shouldn't be used in isolation, but can be added to the weight of the evidence when determining the overall prospects for a stock.

as to GS itself, I haven't much of an opinion. the share price does look over-extended, but GS is a pretty complicated entity, so I'd rather stick to stocks that are easier to analyze from a valuational perspective.

but as this General Liquidity Rally is getting long in tooth about now, using the 50/200 dma cross as a screen for selling opportunities should come in useful. it is one of the things have helped identify potential selling opportunities in the past* and I think it will come in handy moving forward.

-------------

*case in point would be MCD which saw a 'golden cross' back in January when the share price was hovering above 60. in the newsletter I suggested shorting the symbol back then. The 'reason' for my bearishness on MCD was (and is) based on valuational concerns, but the ma cross helped me identify the timing of the opportunity.

more recently in the newsletter (April 24), I used the screen to identify DBRN as an over-extended issue. the jury is still out on that one, but here is a chart of DBRN as another example of the golden cross as contrary indicator concept:

Unique Stock Screen -- United Community Banks Inc. (UCBI)

Smoking Securities linked to this Stock Screener last week that he has been using to identify stocks with high short interest that are trading at new highs. (great call/trade on GMCR by the way, Chuck.)

while I was farting around on the screener, it occurred to me to search for stocks that have high short positions and recent insider buying. I thought companies that had such a dissonance of opinion about them would be interesting to monitor. thing is, there is currently only one symbol that meets those parameters -- UCBI.

The insider buying the last six months hasn't been very large, but it's something. plus there hasn't been any selling by insiders, so that's good I guess.

as with a lot of things, the stocks up quite a bit from the lows, and looks to be approaching resistance. who Knows, but it seems risky to buy at this level, but it might be something to keep an eye on as an opportunity during the next down cycle in the market. here's the ATR(1) point and figure graph to bookmark, so you can monitor the share price history from varying perspectives depending on how volatile the stock is on a given day.



but what gets me is that there are no other stocks out there with high short positions and insider buying. either the shorts ultimately have it right and the companay insiders Know it, or the officers and directors of these public companies are clueless. either way, this isn't a reassuring indicator on the state of Corporate America.

we'll have to look at this screen again after the Stock Markt takes another dive.

charts for Wednesday's report

tomorrow morning's Trend & Value Letter will feature analysis of the Gold-Silver Ratio, but there are too many charts to place in the report itself, so I am posting them here for reference.

canadian dollar trend -- search of the day

30 percent of the hits to this blog the last couple days have come from searches like this:

canadian dollar trend

they are all coming to this little post I wrote earlier in the year:

Thursday, January 29, 2009
three month Canadian dollar trend

now it is very rare for an individual blog post to get more hits in a day than the main page of the blog, yet this interest in the Canadian Dollar has been going on now for a couple days. my inclination is to view this as a contrary indicator, but let's examine the trend in CAD to be sure.



the weekly chart here shows that the rate has entered into a zone of resistance around the intersection of the .245 lateral retracement and the .3247 speed line. in the event this doesn't hold, I would expect extremely stiff resistance around 87/88, possibly in the next three to five weeks.

looking at the uptrend the last couple months we see a pretty clear five wave pattern. but, you Know, it's not a very nice looking wave formation if you ask me. wave five is about the same size as wave one so far, while wave three was noticeably smaller than one and five. that should be regarded with at least some suspicion.



there is a possibility that the entire advance could end up as a seven wave retracement. if so then near-term support would be expected in the 82/83 zone followed by another rally up as high as the 87/88 resistance identified on the weekly chart above.

in summary, I think there is the potential for the Loonie to gain somewhat more ground against the Greenback, though I am inclined to view the last couple months as a bear market rally. if/when the world economy tails off into a secondary deflation, CAD is gonna get whacked pretty good.

Update 21:46 PM: I forget to insert the short-term chart in the original post. this has now been corrected.

13 July gold 666 -- search of the day

someone from the UK just arrived to the blog via this search:

13 July gold 666

huh. wonder what provoked this query. . .

I've been looking for Gold to drop to the Number myself, but my preferred date had been May 13, which is looking pretty unlikely. maybe the googler is on to something. I'll have to look into it.:

Update 5/4/09 8:36AM: I see now that Gold traded at 666 on July 13, 2007! ah...

a picture for you

my mother writes:

You have been sent 1 picture. Good morning Kyle Ledbetter Lucas! Doug and I were just looking at your website and we were again commenting on how easy it is to use and how good looking it is. Anyway, we have this Picasa program on our computer that gives a slide show of all our photos and this one keeps coming up, we laugh every time. Doug thinks it's great and would be funny on your website![. . .] Love to you, Mom

Yen Check

A few charts to check up on the Yen. Since many currencies tend to move together against the yen I am comparing three that I find most interesting. To keep the Yen in focus, lets look at the yen in the numerator position.The numbers on the right are a little funky, it has to do with the way the indexes are calculated.

Yen vs. $US

Yen vs. Aussie Dollar

Yen vs. New Zealand Dollar

Where to from here? Probably not up. The 200 smas are interesting. If you were looking at $XAD:$XJY or $NZD:$XJY those 200 smas might not look quite as vulnerable. If the stock markets were to go through a rough spot again soon I dont know that the Aussie and Kiwi would hang in there as well as the $USD...but overall, over the summer I see the Yen remaining well below its February highs.