Just like I Thought

I came across this odd "news" article the other day which confirmed my suspicions that Japan is indeed becoming stranger :

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20090926f3.html

Surely the Japanese youth are becoming further and further removed from the old Japanese ways but sitting to pee? Combine that with the increasingly present man-purse seen throughout Asia and the odd fashion trends and I have to wonder what the future holds for masculinity in Japan.

A chart of usd/yen shown below also shows a more recent change/oddity...though one of these days I suspect this will change direction and push back up into the upper 90s and beyond.

S&P Inflection Points -- the latest Trend & Value Letter

yesterday afternoon and this morning I published a two part report on the Stock Markt. Part I deals with the S&P 500, while Part II tackles the S&P Small Cap, Mid Cap, and Super Composite indexes.

in the report I utilize several of the unique price analysis tools that I have developed. the totality of the evidence suggests that the market has approached a key inflection point.

sign up for the newsletter service at the top of the blog to read this important report. I'll email you the pdf files as soon as I receive your payment.

thanks,

Lucas

USD/JPY Major Bottom? -- 60/40 Chance -- EOM

update 10:30 AM: hmm... not good

Sizing Up the S&P -- Today's Trend and Value Letter

I just mailed out the latest newsletter to subscribers. it assesses the the P/E ratio for the S&P, as well as indicators like the VIX, Panic Ratio, Bullish % Index and the SPXEW vs SPX. I also examine Textron (TXT) and International Paper (IP), and give tentative price targets for both symbols. The report consists of 6 pages (5.5 really), 1278 words, and 9 chart images.

an image of the first page of the report is below (click to enlarge). if you want to read more, sign up for one of the subscription options at the top of the blog.

97.6 percent bullish

a grand total of 12 S&P 500 components are trading below their 200, 50, and 20 day moving averages.

click here to view the list.

when, not if. . .

quote of the day

a friend forwards me this passage:

People will answer, ‘Because they have forsaken the Lord their God, who brought their fathers out of Egypt, and have embraced other gods, worshiping and serving them—that is why the Lord brought all this disaster on them.’

Kings 9,9. (Kings is apparently the 9th book of the Bible...)

Analysis of Agricultural Commodities -- Today's TnV

today's Trend & Value Letter covers Sugar, Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans. plus GKX, the Ag price index. plus MOO, the Agribusiness ETF. it was mailed off to subscribers about half an hour ago.

here's an image of the first page of the pdf, for your previewing pleasure:


(click image to view full size)

the report consists of 6 pages, 12 charts, and 1175 words. sign up today for one of the subscription options at the top of the blog and receive this issue as a bonus. (meaning, for example, if you sign up to receive 7 issues, you'll actually get 8. such a deal.)

The Fine Day - September 9, 2009

it's ninth day of the ninth month of the ninth year -- 999

oddly enough the spot price of gold opened the day at $999.61.

update (8:50 PM): and hey, the PM Fix for Gold was 999.5!

Chinese Market relative to Commodities

the graph shows the ratio of the Shanghai Index to the GS Commodities Index (spot). when the ratio is rising it means Mainland Chinese stocks are outperforming commodities prices, and vis a versa. the black dashed line is the 520 week moving average (10 years).

just an interesting chart I happened upon. throughout the year (in the newsletter) I have been tracking the relationship of Chinese stocks to commodities prices, so I thought I'd post this ratio before I forgot about it.

9 out of 10 Technicians Agree

I stopped by kitco.com this morning with the intent of checking the recent London Fix data. happened upon a commentary by Rick Ackerman, in which he says,

Head-and-shoulders patterns aside, just about every decent technician we know is looking for a breakout above $1000 right now.

and of course just about every crappy 'technician' is looking for a break above 1000 too, and has been for the last year and a half.

now I try not to be a knee-jerk contrarian, but it is really hard not to laugh at the notion of a consensus among technical analysts.

at any rate, I did get to the London Fix page after a bit. I notice that Friday's PM Fix came in at 989, which happened to be the high PM Fix in February as well. in a few hours we will find out whether today's Fix exceeds that number, but I wonder whether anyone out there is contemplating the prospect of a double top right now, basis PM Fix?

hot off the DJ newswire:

1232 GMT [Dow Jones] Nonfarm payrolls declined 216,000 in August, smaller than the 233,000 decline economists expected. July's figure was revised to -276,000, from -247,000. The unemployment rate grew to 9.7%, the highest level since June 1983 when the rate was 10.1%. (KGM)

that's great. just keep them coming in 'better than expected'. then simply revise the figure a month later. genius.

GDX -- volume cycle

I'll examine this more closely in the next newsletter.

July 15 2009 newsletter available to public -- deals with KGC

the PDF is on the Old Reports page, or directly by clicking the following link:

Trend and Value Letter 07_15_2009.pdf

I thought I'd put this one up for public consumption just because KGC hit the upside target I mentioned in the letter. actually, in the letter itself I equivocated a lot about the direction of the stock would move so I am not really trying to brag about making a great call, rather the 22 number came up in more detail during an email exchange I had with a reader that morning. here is the question the reader had for me at the time:

so Lucas, this forceful breakout of KGC in the near future...being wi a few hours?

supposin' - for discussion purposes - a body had some KGC...do you reckon there'll be more upside then approaching $22.

again, Lucas, no expectation of a response...only if you're inclined.

interesting letter this morning...your commentary about Dell and Intel was very credible to me.

regards

and here was my response:

remember that the initial breakout target I had is the .755 retracement at 19.87, which is barely above the previous high (and now today's high).

beyond that, yes, 22 looks like a target, but the way I am currently
viewing the overall markets that would be perhaps the maximum upside
one could expect.

notice the 'rising wedge' pattern on the attached chart. the price
could run to 22 and not violate that pattern. but the pattern itself
is bearish (in my opinion). and there is no guarentee that kgc will
hit the upper end of pattern yet again.

considering all this, the call option selling strategy you have
employed in the past may be appropriate now. though the question would
be of timing, as premiums would likely increase dramatically with any
more upside from here.

hope that helps a little.

and here is the exact chart of KGC I attached to the email with the same trendlines (but updated through today's close):



the point of all this? well, I needed to write a blog post about something. . .

plus I wanted to show the lurkers out there an example of what we actually do here at Trend & Value.

now the question is whether KGC actually reverses here at 22. that's a tough one.

copper chart

I am sure a bunch of people have already pointed this out, but I see that near-month Copper prices hit the .618 retracement recently. I will include some more detailed price analysis of Copper in the next newsletter. (scheduled for early tomorrow morning.)

Pro-Dollar newsflow starting to percolate

Naked Capitalism excerpts this bloomberg story:

Goldman Sachs Wrong on Economic Recovery, Macro Hedge Funds Say

basically the big players featured in the article are getting long the US Dollar and T-Bonds. it happens that this is a theme I have been promoting in the newsletter. Bonds have started to firm the last few months, while the Dollar is still trying to find its footing. give it time, I say.

also, the article quotes Clarium's assets under management at "about $2 billion." that is a lot smaller number than I have seen quoted in the past. anybody Know what's behind the drop?