Wednesday, March 3, 2010

The Wannsee - err.. Park Avenue - Conference

This is totally awesome:



So some 'sociopath' fund 'predators' met on February 8th, and that is responsible for the euro's 'demise'?

Okay, let's check the timeline:



Man, if the dollar-bears are screaming about a conspiracy when the euro has dropped all of 15¢ so far, then you know this is going to get good.

And by the way, I'd love to see them ban Credit Default Swaps, because then all the pressure can be directed at the currency itself, as it should be. The whole point of a fiat currency system is for the forex value to serve as a release valve in this type of situation.

And besides all of it, what is happening in Europe right now was soooooo completely predictable.

And predicted! It took me 90 minutes to find it, but I have located a blog post I wrote on September 6th, 2008. I will quote here the pertinent passages:

as for the Dollar, I'm awfully skeptical that the ultimate top for this rally will be only 80 or even 82. the low 80s are where we find the Fib retracement targets from the 2005 top in the Dollar, but the targets from the Very Top put would put the index into the 90s. but having said that, a major counter-trend rally from near current levels seems pretty likely.

my sense though is that the currency markets will increasingly be viewed less from the vantage point of the Dollar against all challengers and more from the view of problems developing within each currency regime. as crises of varying magnitudes begin to take hold within each regime, speculative forces will attack the target du jour vis-a-vis its various counterparts. and then the violent unwindings of these speculative runs. the actions with the Yen and the Dollar the last couple years may serve as prototypes of these myriad einsturzchens to come.

the Euro is a prime candidate now for one of these 'independent episodes'. and considering that the Euro has by far the largest weighting in the US Dollar Index, that could, in fact, push the USDX significantly higher in short order. you Know, when a Euro Crisis develops. (a question of When, not If.)

(click here to read the original post in its entirety.)

Man, re-reading all those posts from the second half of '08 in search of those paragraphs was like a opening a time capsule filled with perfection. I'll regain that kind of brilliance someday, I'm sure, but the last year or so I just haven't been completely 'in my element.' That's OK, I'll keep at it, I might not be that good, but I'm still the best at what I do.

Cue the Bukowski clip:



I originally posted that to the blog as part of this post, if yer curious.