Index Data

Closing values for Friday, February 26, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

1020.07 (down .04%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

925.49 (up 1.56%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4606 (up .88%)


Commodity ETFs (New):

2091 (up 1.50%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

961.20 (up 1.71%)


Penny Banks:

971.38 (down .66%)


Foreign Blend:

6596 (up 114)


General Liquidity:

1003.20 (up .65%)


Über-Indicator:

26.65 (up 1.23)

-----

Below is a chart of the Über-Indicator. It only goes back 11 days, but it is starting to be useful.



Even with the stock market pretty flat today, the Ü-I managed to gain some. We will be eying that 7 day moving average closely the next few sessions.

Index Data

Closing values for Thursday, February 25, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

1020.46 (down .39%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

911.28 (up .89%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4566 (up 2.34%)


Commodity ETFs (New):

2061 (down 1.43%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

945.00 (down .08%)


Penny Banks:

977.96 (down .40%)


Foreign Blend:

6482 (down 63)


General Liquidity:

996.77 (down .11%)


Über-Indicator:

25.42 (down .30)

-----

New -- Commodity ETF Index

I just devised an index to track performance of a collection of the major commodity ETFs. It is weighted according to how much volume each symbol has traded historically, though I made some adjustments to keep the biggest funds from having too too much influence. Here is the list of components, with share weightings and current value within the index:



The purpose is to capture the performance of commodities to the degree that they are traded as ETFs. Serious money trades commodity futures themselves, and I highly doubt that is going to change. This Commodity ETF index, on the other hand, is meant to gauge the retail investment public's position in commodities.

Henceforth you can find the daily closing value of this index quoted on the 'Index Data' posts.

VTI vs VEU

back above the surface now...



VTI:VEU ratio still implies continued flow of capital support for the US dollar.

Quote of the Day, from a couple days ago actually

How low can the market go?
I don’t know. All I know is, someone just threw a giant fish in my fucking omelet and I don’t like it. Not one bit.

-- The Fly

Entertaining post. Check it out. (H/T to Chuck's twitter)

Gold and Silver -- 3 hour charts with speedlines

If these lines break, then markets far and wide will feel the pain.

Dow Industrial Average Since 1928 (log scale)

If the S&P drops to 469, then the target on the Dow is 4163.

S&P Weekly Consolidated Rate of Change -- Since 1959!

Hey, maybe Prechter has been on to something these many years after all.

And here is a log-scale chart of the SPX over the same period:



On the graph I included the Consolidated Weekly Moving Average (CWMA). It's at 1107 right now, right about where the index is trading. If you need to delineate between bull and bear markets this CWMA may be just the thing. Click on the graph above to enlarge and examine how the index has tended to move off the average at different points along the way.

And one more thing. I am going to say this in Public once, and only once: If the stock market ever drops below 666, the next bottom will be at 469. Why? That is for me to know, and for you to think me crazy if I told you.

The problem is that I am not positive that the market will break 666, I haven't made a firm determination about that yet. But if it does, then the number is 469. Write it down -- and keep your mouth shut.

S&P 500 with Consolidated Daily Moving Average (CDMA)

The CDMA on the SPX is posing as support. Awfully similar to the CDMA on gold I posted earlier...

Correction (02/28/10)!: I think that CDMA was gold's! I was looking at the SPX again, and kept wondering why today the average looked different than the one above. I spent an hour checking my formulas on the spreadsheet, and everything checked out. I can only conclude that when I plugged SPX into the spreadsheet initially, the chart changed the daily prices from gold to SPX, but didn't change the CDMA.

but what's really wierd is how gold CDMA made such great support for SPX!

Longer-Term Chart of Gold's Consolidated Rate of Change (CROC)

Goes back to 2002

New Momentum Indicator for Gold

My new take on the 'Rate of Change' (ROC) indicator. Nothing special really, so I won't bother to explain the calculation.



Update: We might call this the 'Consolidated Rate of Change' (CROC!)

Gold PM Fix

Ever wonder what an average of several moving averages would look like? Well, I thought I'd try it on this chart of the Gold PM Fix. It is an average of the 21, 28, 37, 49, 65, 86, 114, 151, 200, 265, 351, and 465 day moving averages.



Update: I think I'll call this the 'Consolidated Daily Moving Average.'

Index Data

Closing values for Wednesday, February 24, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

1024.47 (up .76%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

903.27 (down .18%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4461 (down .51%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

945.75 (up .73%)


Penny Banks:

981.84 (up 1.27%)


Foreign Blend:

6545 (up 97)


General Liquidity:

997.83 (up .57%)


Über-Indicator:

25.72 (up 2.81)

-----

Boring day.

the cycle wind will be at your back

Ever read the blogs at stockcharts.com? Oh, well then you aren't missing much.

Now that I am 34 and all grown up, I try not to insult other market opinionators, plus it's year of the tiger and I'd hate to have anything come back to bite me, but the analysis of this recent blog post at stockcharts is just an insult to the analysis trade, so I have to point it out. Have a click and see:

GOLD MINERS VS. GOLD FUTURES

Quote: "Unfortunately, we haven't included a Gold Futures price here, but take our word for it: a rather bullish consolidation is confirmed, with prices having broken above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages."

There are more moving averages out there than the 20 or 50, Richard. Like the 60 DMA, for instance:



Yeah, lot's of averages to choose from...

The rest of the post linked to above is even more comical. Could be that gold and mining stocks go the way he forecasts based on some similarity in stochastic squiggles. I doubt it, but hey, you never can be sure.

Christ, I'll just paste half the guy's post so you can read it without clicking the link and losing your spot:

The technical reasons are rather simple:
1) A very large trading range has formed between roughly .025 and .070; each level has been tested multiple times in sequence.
2) A larger bottom was forged in late-2008 much like that of late-2000. If the latter is like the former - and we do think it is, then the cycle wind will be at the back of higher ratio prices for several years further into the future. A minor mean reversion target would be the overhead 250-week moving average, which we think would provide only minor resistance until trading range resistance is once again tested.
2) A clear corrective process has developed in the latter half of 2009, which is above trendline support and mirrors the corrective process of the late-2001 period. Moreover, each of these corrective processes occurred with the 30-week stochastic rolling over from something less than overbought levels. If the current pattern is like that of 2001 - then sharply higher prices are ahead.

Thus, if one were bullish of Gold in general - then one should own the Gold Miners rather than the Gold Futures or Gold ETF (GLD). If were agnostic about the direction of Gold, then the evidence is sufficiently compelling that this would make a great hedged pairs trade.

The Technical Reasons Are Rather Simple!

If The Latter Is Like The Former!

Trendline Support And Mirrors!

Adverb, Gerund, Preposition!

....Alright, no more cheap shots at people till I turn 55.

T-Bonds vs Stocks -- Long-Term Chart

This charts approximates the total return performance (pre-tax) of T-Bonds versus the total returns (pre-tax) of the S&P 500 since June 1996.

Green Mountain (GMCR) Looking Toppy

Still a lot of short interest here, so beware, but the chart itself suggests the potential of a tradeable top.

Index Data

Closing values for Tuesday, February 23, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

1016.84 (down 1.06%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

904.86 (down 1.79%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4484 (down 2.60%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

938.87 (down 2.03%)


Penny Banks:

969.41 (down .65%)


Foreign Blend:

6448 (down 192)


General Liquidity:

992.16 (down .93%)


Über-Indicator:

22.91 (down 7.98)

-----

Index Data

Closing values for Monday, February 22, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

1027.77 (down .14%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

921.37 (up .37%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4604 (down 1.06%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

958.37 (down .17%)


Penny Banks:

975.81 (up .97%)


Foreign Blend:

6640 (down 5)


General Liquidity:

1001.43 (down .15%)


Über-Indicator:

30.89 (up .25)

-----

Tightening the Screws of Engagement

AP video on Nato's Afghan air strike mishap:




Classic choice of verb tense from the general at 32 seconds.

Remember 2007?

Here is the S&P 500 from July to October 2007:



And here is the index from late last year to present:



The last couple days up kind of mitigates the striking similarity of the two charts, but the similarity is still pretty striking.

Plus, some of the international indices now look incredibly similar to the 2007 chart above.

Comex Gold Commercial Net Short Position as a Percentage of Total Open Interest

The past couple weeks I have encountered a bunch of noise to the effect that the gold COTs structure constitutes an adequate clean-out of speculative interest in the metal. With that in mind, I took the historical Commercial Net Short Position for Comex gold for each weekly COT report and divided it by the Open Interest shown on each report. The purpose here is to give us a more neutral reference of speculative interest in the metal than the raw Net Short Position. This is because that as the gold market develops OI may tend to increase on a trend basis. So I think that adjusting the Net Short Position to OI gives us a truer reflection of the market's structure.

Here is a chart of the data beginning with the June 5, 2007 report, and ending with the most recent report dated February 16, 2010.



Click here for the data on a google docs spreadsheet.

The Commercial Net Short Position was upwards of 60% of Open Interest at points last year. The market has backed off that extrem, extrem level and is now in the mid-40% range, which, historically considered, is still pretty extreme. The lows in 2007 and 2008 came with readings closer to 20%.

It may be that the COTs aren't a valid tool this time around (I've heard that before...) or it may be that gold moves higher now and we wait longer for a real clean out, but to say that the market is now bullish from a COT perspective is just completely bogus.

Index Data

Closing values for Friday, February 19, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

1029.18 (up .07%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

918.01 (down 2.00%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4653 (down .67%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

960.02 (down .78%)


Penny Banks:

966.65 (up .21%)


Foreign Blend:

6645 (down 65)


General Liquidity:

1002.88 (down .07%)


Über-Indicator:

30.64 (up .49)

-----

Index Data

Closing values for Thursday, February 18, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

1028.42 (up .66%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

936.78 (down .43%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4685 (up 1.20%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

967.56 (up .76%)


Penny Banks:

964.51 (up .64%)


Foreign Blend:

6710 (up 70)


General Liquidity:

1003.62 (up .34%)


Über-Indicator:

30.15 (up 4.00)

-----
Like I said yesterday, Party's Over. Move along now, Cops a comin'.

No Thanks, Bloomie

Tried to get to the Bloomberg.com home page just now, but got this page instead:

(click to view bigger)

excerpt:

B. LINKING AND FRAMING TERMS AND CONDITIONS

YOU MAY NOT LINK TO OR FRAME THIS WEB SITE, OR ANY PORTION THEREOF, EXCEPT AS PROVIDED HEREIN.

1. . Intellectual Property.
Upon linking to this Web site pursuant to the TOS, you will be granted a non-exclusive, non-transferable, royalty-free sub-license to use the BLOOMBERG mark owned by Bloomberg Finance L.P. solely for providing an underlined, textual link from your Web site to Bloomberg.com. No other use of Bloomberg's marks, names or logos is permitted without express written permission from BLP.

2. Restrictions on Linking to this Web Site.
Without limiting other provisions contained in our TOS, you may include a link(s) on your Web site to Bloomberg.com's publicly accessible Web pages (i.e., any Web page which does not require a login and password and/or restrict access). You may not link to Bloomberg.com any site containing an inappropriate, profane, defamatory, infringing, obscene, indecent or unlawful topic, name, material or information that violates any applicable intellectual property, proprietary, privacy or publicity rights.

3. Restrictions on Framing Activities.
BLP is concerned about the integrity of this Web site when it is accessed in a manner solely determined by third parties or viewed in a setting solely created by third parties. Specifically, BLP is concerned with activities such as bringing up or presenting content of this Web site within another Web site ("framing"). In this regard, without limiting the provisions contained in our TOS, you may not frame any Web page from Bloomberg.com, except with our express written permission. Further, you may not archive, cache, or mirror any Bloomberg.com Web page or portions of a Web page. If you would like to use, reprint, frame, or redistribute any Bloomberg.com content other than as permitted herein, you must request permission from BLP by writing to FEEDBACK. Please include: (a) your name, e-mail address, and telephone number; (b) the name of your company; (c) the Web site address(es) where the proposed use will occur; and (d) specific details about the contemplated linking or framing activities, including the content or Web page(s) of this Web site which you would like to use.

Terms of Service for linking to their crap? No thanks, dudes. I'll get my contrary indicators elsewhere for now on.

More IMF Gold For Sale

MarketWatch:

International Monetary Fund to sell another 191 tons of gold

To put that in perspective, GLD holds (supposedly) about 1100 tons. So 191 tons is a noticable amount, but it's not overwhelming.

But it is somewhat worrying that they didn't find any 'official sector' buyers for this hoard. With all the hype the last couple years, you'd think the Chinese or such would be anxious to scoop up an extra hundred tons or so, as they seem willing to buy anything at any price. Maybe there was a scheduling conflict with the Lunar New Year. Year of the Tiger, only supposed to buy yellow things during odd months when the Yangtze's in retrograde.

But remember, 666 is a very lucky number.

Index Data

Closing values for Wednesday, February 17, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

1021.68 (up .41%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

940.81 (up .19%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4629 (down .44%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

960.23 (down .12%)


Penny Banks:

958.34 (up 1.27%)


Foreign Blend:

6640 (up 27)


General Liquidity:

1000.18 (down .12%)


Über-Indicator:

26.15 (up 2.13)

-----

Party's over. There are some 'Quality' US stocks that look in a position to advance more from here, but the broader indices do not look like they have tremendous upside at this point. Plus, high-beta, anti-dollar crap is about to get b*tch slapped, again. Three weeks down, then a week up. That's the tempo for 2010.

Index Data

Closing values for Tuesday, February 16, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

1017.52 (up 1.57%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

939.05 (up 3.10%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4650 (up 2.61%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

961.35 (up 2.63%)


Penny Banks:

946.15 (up .84%)


Foreign Blend:

6613 (up 227 pts)


General Liquidity:

1001.33 (up 1.60%)


Über-Indicator:

24.02 (up 4.94)

-----

Treasury Index

Amazingly, Treasury prices even managed a modest advance today.

Index Data

Closing values for Friday, February 12, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

1001.78 (down .24%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

910.81 (down .04%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4531 (down .42%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

936.73 (down 1.06%)


Penny Banks:

938.23 (up .36%)


Foreign Blend:

6386 (down 87 pts)


General Liquidity:

985.59 (down .21%)


Über-Indicator (New!):

19.08 (up .04)

-----

I've sacked a few indices I wasn't finding useful, and added the Über-Indicator! -- which is intended to be the broadest (US) stock market indicator known to man. Bet you wish you knew what it's made of..

S&P Daily Chart with special averages

I have a strong hunch that these averages are going to prove very useful in forecasting the short- mid- and long-term direction of the stock market (and other markets with sufficiently long data histories). While I will be using them in my work for subscribers, the computation of the averages and the rationale behind them will be kept secret.

However, I am willing to sell the formula. The asking price is $3,000. (I need some money...) Contact me for payment options.

trendandvalue@gmail.com or 612.284.5953

Index Data

Closing values for Thursday, February 11, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

1004.23 (up 1.22%)


Large Cap Dividend Top 50:

998.73 (up .89%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

911.14 (up 2.60%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4550 (up 3.14)


BRIC Basic Materials:

946.80 (up 3.50%)


Wonder Dogs:

380.14 (up 2.27%)


Leaders of the Pack:

823.80 (up 1.66%)


Penny Banks:

934.68 (up 1.90%)


Foreign Blend:

6473 (up 214 pts)


General Liquidity:

988.05 (up 1.00%)

-----

Follow Me on Google Buzz

I am really excited about the new Buzz service Google has embedded into my Gmail account. I have always found social networking a drag and have so far avoided it, but the way Buzz is set up should allow me to disseminate my research in a more fluid manner.

I will continue to use the blog to post less consequential thoughts and charts, and the cool thing is that my blog posts are automatically crossed posted to my Buzz page. Additionally I will be able to share items from Google Reader on Buzz, which finally gives me a reason use Reader on a regular basis.

But what really sold me on Buzz is the ability to limit who can read what. Each time it posts something, it gives me the option to put it in the public domain or to have the entry viewable only to members of one or more of my gmail contact lists. This will allow me to publish short updates and observations that only subscribers to the Trend & Value Letter have the privilege of seeing.

So I highly suggest that subscribers to the newsletter activate Buzz in their Gmail accounts and start following me. If you currently receive the newsletter in a different email account than your Gmail account then simply send me the Gmail address that you will be using for Buzz and I'll add it to the premium access list.

If you do not have a Gmail/Buzz account already, sign up only takes a minute, and it is super easy to get the service configured. Visit http://www.google.com/buzz to learn more and get started.

The URL to my Buzz page is below. Click now and start following me. There is not much there now actually, but moving forward you will find a steady stream of blog posts, news of interest, private updates for subscribers, and more.

http://www.google.com/profiles/TrendandValue


The following video gives a brief description of the Buzz service.

Index Data

Closing values for Wednesday, February 10, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

992.11 (down .23%)


Large Cap Dividend Top 50:

989.93 (down .22%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

888.05 (up .72%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4412 (down .25%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

914.75 (down .10%)


Wonder Dogs:

371.71 (down .18%)


Leaders of the Pack:

810.31 (down .16%)


Penny Banks:

917.22 (down .55%)


Foreign Blend:

6259 (up 6 pts)


General Liquidity:

978.30 (down .11%)

-----

SPY with Plastic Moving Averages

This is a chart of closing prices for SPY (S&P 500 ETF) that includes PMA(14) and PMA(21).

30 Year Treasury Yield Chart with Plastic Moving Average

This is actually a longer-term PMA than the charts I was posting early. This one has 23 data points, while the others were 21.

S&P Weekly Charts with Plastic Moving Averages

This one goes back like 48 years:



Below is a close up of the past 200 weeks.



The PMA seems to be posing some resistance recently.

Value Line Geometric Index -- Weekly Chart w/ Plastic Moving Average

Chart of Dow with Plastic Moving Average

This is a normal closing price chart of the Dow Industrial Average, but I've added what I am tentatively calling a 'plastic moving average'. It is a new concept I am working on, I might explain more about it later, but first I should see if there is any use for it...

Index Data

Closing values for Tuesday, February 9, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

994.58 (up 1.53%)


Large Cap Dividend Top 50:

993.47 (up 1.38%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

881.73 (up 2.13%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4423 (up 2.98%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

915.68 (up 4.21%)


Wonder Dogs:

372.38 (up 2.72%)


Leaders of the Pack:

811.73 (up 1.50%)


Penny Banks:

922.33 (up .38%)


Foreign Blend:

6253 (up 307 pts)


General Liquidity:

979.42 (up 1.09%)

-----

Index Data

Closing values for Monday, February 8, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

979.62 (down .88%)


Large Cap Dividend Top 50:

979.96 (down .70%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

866.13 (down .24%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4295 (down 2.52%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

878.66 (down 1.37%)


Wonder Dogs:

362.53 (down .84%)


Leaders of the Pack:

799.72 (down .17%)


Penny Banks:

918.78 (down 1.04%)


Foreign Blend:

5946 (down 51 pts)


General Liquidity:

968.88 (down .50%)

-----

Not a gambling man (or, Yahoo!, The White Castle of the Internet)

So Henry Blodget and his side-kick Aaron (or is Henry Aaron's side-kick? I get confused) spend several minutes rapping about all the bad stuff happening in the world and how the markets are vulnerable and on and on....



...then toward the end Blodget throws in a disclaimer or qualifier what have you, saying, "I wouldn't bet on it [but..]"

Wouldn't bet on it? Come on Henry, what business is this anyway?

So I'm at yahoo! and want to comment on this Tech Tickler video but you have to log in to yahoo to post a comment. Fine, whatever, I remembered I had a yahoo! account from years ago, thought I'd see if I could access it. Yeah it's still there. But I am trying to update my profile information and find that yahoo!'s member pages are just totally unnavigable. Seriously, they got like five different pages that you need to go to to change profile info etc (and they want you to put your phone number and mailing address in there?? WTF?) and it's all very disjointed. Total clusterfuck.

Now I use yahoo! finance frequently to get quick looks at company stats, even though they often have inaccurate data, I am familiar with the layout, but beyond that small bit of utility (and I could easily go elsewhere) I am not sure what purpose yahoo! has for existing. Hopefully someday Microsoft actually will buy it, just to put it out of its misery.

Some months ago I wrote that you could just short any company with an exclamation mark (!) in the official company name. I think that is still a valid strategy.

(Oh, and by the way, I don't really have anything against Henry Blodget, seems like an okay guy actually, I just think it odd that someone can have such an adamant view about the markets, but then say, "I wouldn't bet on it.")

Index Data

Closing values for Friday, February 5, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

988.30 (down .10%)


Large Cap Dividend Top 50:

986.89 (down .34%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

865.21 (up .29%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4406 (up 3.51%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

890.88 (down .04%)


Wonder Dogs:

365.59 (down .07%)


Leaders of the Pack:

801.11 (up 2.59%)


Penny Banks:

928.18 (up 1.32%)


Foreign Blend:

5997 (down 24 pts)


General Liquidity:

973.75 (down .10%)

-----

Yeah, there was a bounce Friday afternoon, supposedly short covering in anticipation of bailout announcement in Europe over the weekend. And yes the markets have been 'oversold' in the short-term. Yada, yada. The way I see it, the technical damage has been done. And that is of more importance than any rationalizations coming out of the bull camp. Take a look at this chart of the static version of the Foreign Blend:

Legend

Thought the biggest news in Japan this week was the Yen beating up on everything else? Or puppetmaster Ozawa's continued woes? Nope. What about Toyota? Maybe.

The biggest story in Japan this week is the coming retirement of Asashouryu, perhaps the best sumo wrestler of the last 20 years. Unfortunately he got into a drunken scuffle a few weeks ago and the Sumo elders cannot forgive him, so he is calling it quits. Too bad for Sumo. Asashoyryu is the Jordan of Sumo, greatness with confidence, retiring in his prime.



Fast forward to 1:57 area for a classic.

Headline: PrivateBancorp changes stock awards, speeding exec bonuses

This kind of thing is why I am a firm believer in taking profits. Always Be Closing, as they say on the sales floor.

PrivateBancorp changes stock awards, speeding exec bonuses

By: Steve Daniels Feb. 04, 2010

(Crain's) — In a bid to provide bonus compensation for 130 senior executives and key employees of PrivateBancorp Inc., the Chicago-based bank is eliminating performance criteria that were tied to stock awards made to the group when they joined en masse from the old LaSalle Bank in late 2007.
The change, disclosed late Tuesday in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing, will enable CEO Larry Richman and other senior executives to obtain immediate stock awards this year.
By contrast, competing local banks — which like Private are operating under federal compensation restrictions tied to participating in the Treasury Department’s bank bailout program — are paying top execs bonuses and portions of salaries in company shares that they can’t sell for several years.[Continues]

Hat tip to bankstocks.com. I recently signed up to get their morning email full of headlines sent to me. Their website needs work, but I do find these emails they send me rather useful.

Index Data

Closing values for Thursday, February 4, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

989.32 (down 2.93%)


Large Cap Dividend Top 50:

990.24 (down 2.57%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

862.71 (down 6.64%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4257 (down 5.04%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

891.24 (down 6.45%)


Wonder Dogs:

365.86 (down 4.25%)


Leaders of the Pack:

780.86 (down 3.28%)


Penny Banks:

916.11 (down 3.40%)


Foreign Blend:

6021 (down 438 pts)


General Liquidity:

974.74 (down 2.12%)

-----

New low for the General Liquidity Index momentum indicator:



And if I can brag just a bit, my newsletter's multi-asset class, almost market neutral, model Seven Symbol Portfolio was up 2.21% today...

AUD/JPY -- 3 hour chart

Captain Panic loves you.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Red is my new favorite color.

Toyota versus Ford

Buy the Panic.

Super Long-Term Chart of US Dollar Index

Upside down...



"Alles geht, Alles kommt zurück..."

Index Data

Closing values for Wednesday, February 3, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

1019.16 (down .56%)


Large Cap Dividend Top 50:

1016.39 (down .95%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

924.04 (up .60%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4483 (down .65%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

952.64 (down .31%)


Wonder Dogs:

382.10 (down .49%)


Leaders of the Pack:

807.37 (up .05%)


Penny Banks:

948.44 (down .90%)


Foreign Blend:

6459 (down 86 pts)


General Liquidity:

995.84 (down .64%)

-----

while off its lows, the General Liquidity momentum indicator remains below zero.

Index Data

Closing values for Tuesday, February 2, 2010:

Trend & Value 50:

1024.91 (up 1.54%)

Foreign Blend:

6545 (up 60 pts)

China Small Cap ADR 25:

918.58 (up 2.26%)

Large Cap Dividend Top 50:

1026.10 (up .87%)

Precious Metals Complex:

4512 (up .34%)

General Liquidity:

1002.26 (up .75%)

BRIC Basic Materials:

955.62 (up 1.49%)

Wonder Dogs:

383.99 (up 1.10%)

Leaders of the Pack:

806.95 (up 1.02%)

Penny Banks:

957.12 (down 2.11%)

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EWH - Hong Kong iShares

working its way back to the break point.

Index Data

Closing values for Monday, February 1, 2010:

Trend & Value 50:

1009.40 (up 1.17%)

Foreign Blend:

6485 (up 270 pts)

China Small Cap ADR 25:

898.31 (up 2.50%)

Large Cap Dividend Top 50:

1017.27 (down .80%)

Precious Metals Complex:

4497 (up 4.20%)

General Liquidity:

994.78 (up 1.18%)

BRIC Basic Materials:

941.57 (up 4.56%)

Wonder Dogs:

379.83 (up 2.69%)

Leaders of the Pack:

798384 (up 2.51%)

Penny Banks:

977.93 (down 1.11%)

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Hey, the markets had to have an up day eventually. But with lackluster volumes and a surprising number of inside days, there is a good chance that today's bounce will prove nothing more than a brief respite.

Thomas Brown on Commercial Real Estate

Tom Brown of bankstocks.com and Second Curve Capital has written a good article explaining why he thinks the CRE 'crisis' is overblown. Here is the beginning:

Might banks’ growing problems with their commercial real estate loans spark a rerun of the subprime mortgage debacle? A lot of pessimists seem to think so, but I doubt it.

Yes, banks are running into severe credit problems with their CRE portfolios, and, yes, those problems are costing shareholders plenty. But there’s a difference between a normal, cyclical credit downcycle and Armageddon II. As it is, banks are enduring a lot of CRE pain, and will keep on enduring pain for several more quarters. That does not mean the whole financial system is at risk.

To begin with, the term “commercial real estate lending” covers all kinds of different kinds of activities, from financing the development of strip malls to so-called “owner occupied” loans to small businesses. Some of those categories will have issues—but by no means all. So generalizations about CRE lending should be viewed with suspicion. On one end of the credit spectrum, yes, financing strip malls can be a risky proposition. But at the other, owner-occupied credits tend to be among the most solid in the lending industry. A bank’s mix of CRE exposure is often as important as its absolute level of exposure. [Continues]

He continues on to make some excellent specific points, so it's well worth your time to read the entire article.

A Really Busy Chart of GLD

A violation of 103 targets 96.