Index Data

Closing values for Thursday, April 29, 2010:

(The previous day's closes are in parentheses.)

Trend & Value 50:

1094.28 (1080.73)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

931.60 (915.52)


Precious Metals Complex:

5065 (5026)


Commodity ETFs:

2118 (2102)


BRIC Basic Materials:

1048.28 (1024.95)


Penny Banks:

1327.54 (1377.3)


Foreign Blend:

7427 (7251)


General Liquidity:

1042.48 (1033.94)



S&P 500 Momentum Composite:

31.90 (26.83)


S&P 500 Breadthalyzer:

.73 (.59)


S&P 500 Notional Volume:

135,241,468,071 ($138,378,891,531)


S&P 500 Notional Advance:

$466,324,809 (-$39,056,537)



---

Index Data

Closing values for Wednesday, April 28, 2010:

(Didn't get a chance to post yesterday's numbers, so those are in parentheses.)

Trend & Value 50:

1080.73 (1074.60)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

915.52 (922.63)


Precious Metals Complex:

5026 (4935)


Commodity ETFs:

2102 (2087)


BRIC Basic Materials:

1024.95 (1014.82)


Penny Banks:

1377.35 (1403.89)


Foreign Blend:

7251 (7139)


General Liquidity:

1033.92 (1031.00)



S&P 500 Momentum Composite:

26.83 (24.72)


S&P 500 Breadthalyzer:

.59 (.04)


S&P 500 Notional Volume:

$138,378,891,531 (153,188,640,638)


S&P 500 Notional Advance:

-$39,056,537 (-3,655,164,841)



---

Treasury sells $44 bln in 2-year debt at 1.024% - MarketWatch

Treasury sells $44 bln in 2-year debt at 1.024% - MarketWatch

Oh yeah, the dollar's toast, nobody in their right mind would buy Treasurys, &c.

Do keep in mind that 95% of the people screaming crap like that on the net don't have any money to begin with.

(Not that I have any money either, but that is likely due to issues aside from my ability to analyze markets...)

Still in the picture?

Are the 2 charts on the left still relevant...untill they arent? What are we waiting for? Cinco De mayo?

Index Data and Observations

Closing values for Monday, April 26, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

1097.33 (-.25%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

952.22 (+1.32%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4893 (-.17%)


Commodity ETFs:

2130 (-.59%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

1058.14 (-.02%)


Penny Banks:

1433.59 (+.03%)


Foreign Blend:

7606 (-6)


General Liquidity:

1045.86 (-.09%)



S&P 500 Momentum Composite:

40.46 (-4.3)


S&P 500 Breadthalyzer:

.17


S&P 500 Notional Volume:

$118,469,903,524


S&P 500 Notional Advance:

-$971,361,197




All ETFs Diffusion:

71.24% (-3.38)


ETFs Notional Volume:

$57,217,330,973



---

While the Penny Bank Index closed about flat on the day, there were some fantastic moves taking place among some of the individual components of the index. here are the two largest advancers and decliners:

Index Data

Closing values for Friday, April 23, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

1100.14 (+.53%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

939.79 (+1.15%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4901 (+1.49%)


Commodity ETFs:

2142 (+.97%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

1058.35 (+.41%)


Penny Banks:

1433.18 (+5.95%)


Foreign Blend:

7612 (+28)


General Liquidity:

1046.79 (+.53%)



S&P 500 Momentum Composite:

44.76 (+4.34)


S&P 500 Breadthalyzer:

2.97


S&P 500 Notional Volume:

$128,882,540,249


S&P 500 Notional Advance:

$851,340,423



All ETFs Diffusion:

74.62% (+3.04)


ETFs Notional Volume:

$67,586,701,159



---

Index Data

Closing values for Thursday, April 22, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

1094.33 (-.26%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

929.12 (+.48%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4829 (+.34%)


Commodity ETFs:

2122 (+.13%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

1054.01 (+.21%)


Penny Banks:

1352.70 (+3.51%)


Foreign Blend:

7584 (-23)


General Liquidity:

1041.28 (+.07%)



S&P 500 Momentum Composite:

40.42 (3.53)


S&P 500 Breadthalyzer:

15.68


S&P 500 Notional Volume:

$145,584,110,182



S&P 500 Notional Advance:

$2,062,345,202





All ETFs Diffusion:

71.58% (+.60)


ETFs Notional Volume:

$86,017,342,538



---

Driving into town

I Know the last thing the world needs is another photo of a sunset silhouetted oil well, but I couldn't pass it up.

Well actually we did pass it up at first, but then I told my driver to turn back around.

Index Data

Closing values for Wednesday, April 21, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

1097.22 (-.10%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

924.68 (-.61%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4813 (+1.00%)


Commodity ETFs:

2119 (+.36%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

1051.84 (-1.67%)


Penny Banks:

1306.83 (+3.36%)


Foreign Blend:

7607 (-64)


General Liquidity:

1040.57 (+.24%)



S&P 500 Momentum Composite:

36.89 (-.43)


S&P 500 Breadthalyzer:

.45


S&P 500 Notional Volume:

$135,083,025,355


S&P 500 Notional Advance:

-$407,918,201




All ETFs Diffusion:

70.98% (-3.16)


ETFs Notional Volume:

$71,383,557,067


---

CNBC: Short Squeeze in Regional Banks?

Volume is big in regional bank names as all are hitting new highs: can you say "short squeeze?"

Why? I've told you about the key trends, which all banks are now reporting: 1) improving credit trends and 2) net interest margin (the spread between borrowing short from depositors and lending long to borrowers) improved last quarter.

This is why you read Trend & Value, to hear about the inevitable, ahead of time.*

And for what it's worth, I don't know if an explosive short squeeze is really in the works. My target of $29 on KRE has about been hit, so I am content with what the regionals have done the last few months. If you took my advice on KRE or individual banks when I made the recommendation in December, my suggestion now is to look at protecting profits. Selling into strength would be the general strategy.

---

* not a lot on the blog about short squeze potential, but I think it was addressed in the newsletter at one point.

Index Data and General Liquidity Challenge Update

Closing values for Tuesday, April 20, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

1098.31 (+.72%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

930.35 (+2.44%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4765 (-.03%)


Commodity ETFs:

2111 (+.58%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

1069.70 (+1.34%)


Penny Banks:

1264.39 (+2.89%)


Foreign Blend:

7671 (+119)


General Liquidity:

1038.06 (+.58%)



S&P 500 Momentum Composite:

37.32 (+7.23)


S&P 500 Breadthalyzer:

.42


S&P 500 Notional Volume:

$131,258,527,361


S&P 500 Notional Advance:

$1,137,111



All ETFs Diffusion:

74.14% (+4.88)


ETFs Notional Volume:

$59,848,620,523


---

The GLI SSO turned negative again, so now we have to exit the long position in TLT and pick a short trade. I am going with GDX. Pretty risky to short gold stocks, or anything else for that matter right now, but in the short term I just have trouble envisioning a lot of upside in the miners.

I chose to go long TLT in the last swing as a defensive move, and it did show us a profit, though most of the other markets held up as well.

So the general liquidity challenge model portfolio will close the long in TLT and open a short position in GDX, based on this morning's opening prices.

Index Data

Closing values for Monday, April 19, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

1090.65 (+.33%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

908.21 (-1.59%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4767 (-.08%)


Commodity ETFs:

2099 (-.89%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

1055.59 (-.66%)


Penny Banks:

1228.88 (+.51%)


Foreign Blend:

7552 (-12)


General Liquidity:

1032.11 (-.35%)



S&P 500 Momentum Composite:

30.09 (+1.63)


S&P 500 Breadthalyzer:

30.27


S&P 500 Notional Volume:

$131,258,527,361


S&P 500 Notional Advance:

$1,649,756,219



All ETFs Diffusion:

69.26% (-.76)


ETFs Notional Volume:

$85,571,830,157


---

Index Data and Observations

Closing values for Friday, April 16, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

1087.05 (-1.24%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

922.92 (-2.48%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4771 (-2.21%)


Commodity ETFs:

2118 (-2.06%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

1062.58 (-3.60%)


Penny Banks:

1222.45 (-1.68%)


Foreign Blend:

7564 (-309)


General Liquidity:

1035.76 (-1.24%)



S&P 500 Momentum Composite:

28.46 (-12.3)


S&P 500 Breadthalyzer:

.01


S&P 500 Notional Volume:

$186,533,687,576


S&P 500 Notional Advance:

-$5,677,693,981



All ETFs Diffusion:

70.02% (-7.03)


ETFs Notional Volume:

$127,780,444,736


---

What an absolutely horrible day in terms of broad indicators I track. For instance, the Breadthalyzer at .01 -- it doesn't get much lower (worse) than that.

Friday could well prove to be an inflection point in terms of breadth and intra-market leadership, but that doesn't mean that the broad stock market benchmarks are going to roll over and die immediately.

I still think a fading gold price is the best indication of a secondary deflation around the corner. But with gold range bound, the jury is still out.

Also, I thought Treasury prices were supposed to be collapsing? I wonder what the hold up is?

Index Data and Observations

Closing values for Thursday, April 15, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

1100.65 (+.38%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

946.38 (+.23%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4878 (-.39%)


Commodity ETFs:

2163 (-.15%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

1102.29 (-.70%)


Penny Banks:

1242.85 (+2.42%)


Foreign Blend:

7873 (-58)


General Liquidity:

1048.79 (-.27%)



S&P 500 Momentum Composite:

40.76 (-2.70)


S&P 500 Breadthalyzer:

1.03


S&P 500 Notional Volume:

$120,913,539,688


S&P 500 Notional Advance:

-$8,510,338



All ETFs Diffusion:

77.05% (-1.50)


ETFs Notional Volume:

$57,044,586,780



---

A little deterioration today.

You gotta love the performance of that Penny Bank Index. But the larger regionals may be approaching resistance. I think my upside target for the KRE fund was $29. Getting close to that number this week. I guess it could go higher still, but I am definitely looking at this level closely.

Also I had a target of .14 on the XLF:SPY ratio if the S&P made it to 1200. That turned out to be about right. Maybe financials in general are about ready to take a break...

Index Data

Closing values for Wednesday, April 14, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

1096.53 (+.84%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

944.18 (+1.05%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4897 (+.61%)


Commodity ETFs:

2166 (+1.30%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

1110.04 (+.97%)


Penny Banks:

1213.64 (+3.50%)


Foreign Blend:

7931 (+151)


General Liquidity:

1051.67 (+.65%)



S&P 500 Momentum Composite:

43.46 (+7.55)


S&P 500 Breadthalyzer:

6.38


S&P 500 Notional Volume:

$126,290,140,203


S&P 500 Notional Advance:

$1,184,637,499



All ETFs Diffusion:

78.55% (+2.28)


ETFs Notional Volume:

$60,481,624,693


---

Pretty bullish action today.

DMM.TO

Otto says a big up-move is coming 'very soon.' I have no reason to doubt his judgement.

DBA - Daily EquiVolume

Food looks like a buy right now. Sentiment among traders and especially farmers seems rather depressed. Lower volume declines on DBA...

No guarantees, but ag certainly looks like one of the better deals around these days.

Index Data

Closing values for Tuesday, April 13, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

1087.35 (+.08%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

934.35 (-.72%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4868 (-.54%)


Commodity ETFs:

2138 (+.48%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

1099.40 (-.28%)


Penny Banks:

1172.73 (+.55%)


Foreign Blend:

7780 (-15)


General Liquidity:

1044.87 (+.33%)


S&P 500 Momentum Composite:

35.91 (+.13)


S&P 500 Breadthalyzer:

2.27


S&P 500 Notional Volume:

$102,122,094,507


S&P 500 Notional Advance:

$274,750,400



All ETFs Diffusion:

76.27% (+.72)


ETFs Notional Volume:

$48,147,915,538


---

Honestly I have no clue what these markets have in mind. I have 1262 as the next target on S&P, but I have no clue when or if it will get there. I'm bearish in mindset, but have little interest in fighting the tape right now. In fact, the markets just don't interest me much at all at the moment. If I get inspired, I'll let you know.

Index Data

Closing values for Monday, April 12, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

1086.46 (+.08%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

941.16 (+.13%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4894 (-.90%)


Commodity ETFs:

2128 (-.43%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

1102.53 (-.67%)


Penny Banks:

1166.22 (+.26%)


Foreign Blend:

7795 (-72)


General Liquidity:

1041.40 (-.16%)


S&P 500 Momentum Composite:

35.78 (+1.17)


S&P 500 Breadthalyzer:

2.17


S&P 500 Notional Volume:

$87,497,957,056


S&P 500 Notional Advance:

$195,904,221


All ETFs Diffusion:

75.55% (-.27)


ETFs Notional Volume:

$43,725,410,636



---

Pretty calm day.

Index Data (see new additions below)

Closing values for Friday, April 9, 2010:

(I didn't get a chance to post Thursday's numbers, so that data is in parentheses)


Trend & Value 50:

1085.62 (1078.31)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

939.96 (927.55)


Precious Metals Complex:

4939 (4893)


Commodity ETFs:

2137 (2129)


BRIC Basic Materials:

1109.93 (1098.55)


Penny Banks:

1163.05 (1164.35)


Foreign Blend:

7867 (7755)


General Liquidity:

1043.11 (1036.23)


S&P 500 Momentum Composite:

34.61


S&P 500 Breadthalyzer:

1.32


S&P 500 Notional Volume:

$90,761,502,081


S&P 500 Notional Advance:

$262,668,087


All ETFs Diffusion:

75.82%

ETFs Notional Volume:

$51,808,284,741


---

The Über-Indicator is in the shop. A couple of days ago I decided change one little thing and once I did that the historical continuity of the values was screwed up, so I figured I might as well take this opportunity to totally revamp the indicator. And I still have some tinkering to do with it. Essentially, it means I am starting over.

For the time being I am going to publish the daily values of what I call the S&P 500 Momentum Composite Index. A version of this was a major component of the Über-Indicator, but the current version is expanded from 21 indicators to 28.

The theoretical extremes for the Momentum Composite are +100 and -100, though you are unlikely to see readings anywhere close to the extremes. Zero (0) is neutral.

Another component of the new Über-Indicator will be what I call the Breadthalyzer. The Breadthalyzer is an equation of a couple different Advance/Decline ratios specific to S&P 500 components. 1.00 is neutral, readings above 1.00 are bullish, and readings below 1.00 are bearish. I'll explain more about it later.

I will also be publishing S&P 500 notional dollar volume figures for each trading day, as well as a number I call the "Notional Advance." More later.

You will also find an indicator called the All ETFs Diffusion Index. This is similar to the SPX Momentum Composite, but there are 21 indicators tracked, and they are all binary. This will be quoted as a percentage (eg 75%). 100% is maximum bullish, while 0% is maximum bearish, but in practice you will never see either extreme, because the index tracks a number of inverse ETFs.

I am also tracking Total ETF Notional Volume, which is how many dollars worth of ETFs are traded each day.

Index Data

Closing values for Wednesday, April 7, 2010:

Trend & Value 50:

1074.39


China Small Cap ADR 25:

927.77


Precious Metals Complex:

4890


Commodity ETFs:

2139


BRIC Basic Materials:

1088.98


Penny Banks:

1147.19


Foreign Blend:

7688


General Liquidity:

1036.54


Über-Indicator:

43.33

----

Index Data and the Battle For Moscow part 7

Closing values for Tuesday, April 6, 2010:

Trend & Value 50:

1082.38 (down .13%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

927.34 (up .18%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4782 (down .21%)


Commodity ETFs:

2151 (down .54%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

1104.48 (down .13%)


Penny Banks:

1127.98 (up 2.20%)


Foreign Blend:

7792 (up 94)


General Liquidity:

1038.85 (up .06%)


Über-Indicator:

45.83 (up 2.13)

----

The General Liquidity Challenge -- quick update

I am under some time constraints, but real briefly, the GLI SSO Histogram turned positive today, so we have to switch from a short position to a long position in the General Liquidity Challenge. So tomorrow morning the model portfolio will close its short position in DBC and open a long position in TLT. we'll use the open price of each security as the price of record.

I'll explain more as soon as I get a chance...

Index Data and the Battle For Moscow part 6

Closing values for Monday, April 5, 2010:

Trend & Value 50:

1083.74 (up .38%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

925.68 (up 1.58%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4792 (up .89%)


Commodity ETFs:

2162 (up 1.69%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

1105.87 (up 1.51%)


Penny Banks:

1103.55 (up 3.74%) (!!!)


Foreign Blend:

7771 (up 94)


General Liquidity:

1038.25 (up .58%)


Über-Indicator:

43.70 (up 4.45)

----

Well, the Siberian divisions can start their surprise counter-attack through the German flank any time now:)

Index Data and the Battle For Moscow part 5

Closing values for Thursday, April 1, 2010:


Trend & Value 50:

1079.63 (up .78%)


China Small Cap ADR 25:

911.30 (up .03%)


Precious Metals Complex:

4750 (up 2.82%)


Commodity ETFs:

2126 (up 2.03%)


BRIC Basic Materials:

1089.40 (up 3.05%)


Penny Banks:

1064.12 (up .21%)


Foreign Blend:

7677 (up 278)


General Liquidity:

1032.25 (up .91%)


Über-Indicator:

39.25 (up 2.92)

----

I can't seem to find part 5 of the same documentary we've been watching, so here is part 5 of a different documentary on the Battle For Moscow. This one is actually a Soviet propaganda film. Pretty cool actually.