Equal-Weight US Dollar Index -- Update

Some weeks ago I mentioned the possibility of downside for the dollar, but suggested the primary uptrend would remain intact. The downside came, and it turned out to be persistent. But I think most of the damage is done at this point; I doubt the dollar (basis my USDX-EW or the trade-weighted index) will drop much more from here.

An updated chart of my equal-weight index is below. While the index has dropped below the Fib speedline, it has so far held the middle speedline. We may not see a real rally develop until it meets the Padovan speedline, but you risk missing the boat waiting for that to happen.

New trade - chart update

I am still fully exposed to the new trade I've mentioned in a couple posts recently. It wouldn't bother me if this jiggled around more for another week or two, but I'd say I am about 75 per cent confident the next big move on the chart will be in my direction.

Canadian dollar -- point & figure chart

A simply awesome triangle.

Hey you, Mr. FCC

I am not sure what the song has to do with today's little ruling, not sure what the song is about really, but I like it. Good excuse to listen to some music.

Gold CROC (PM Fix)

This is a little different version than the Consolidated Rate of Change indicator I was looking at earlier in the year.

But it tells the same story -- that gold's internal momentum has been persistently waning. A break below the ascending trendline would reflect very poorly on gold's immediate prospects.

Protection is Our Trademark

I ripped this off of an image that boing boing ripped off a tv site the feds shut down:



As a show of solidarity with The Federal Government and All Its Agencies, I'm putting this logo at the bottom of my blog, until, well, you don't hear from me anymore..

Oh, and thanks to Chuck for sharing the post on his google reader.

Ag prices in gold

A while back I mentioned that ag commodities would be a good buy if this ratio ever hit, or got close to hitting, that lower trendline. That's pretty close.

whether food stuffs go up in dollar terms right now I don't know, but relative to metals ag looks cheap, and the ratio appears due to bounce.

Oh, and by the way, the long-term chart for soybeans looks pretty neat these days. check out that triangle.



I don't know which way that will move, but the move should be a good one. If you trade futures, beans are where you want to keep your eyes focused.

my new trade

Unfortunately, I was only able to enter about one-fifth of the trade at the beginning of last week because of how little money I had in my trading account. Monday morning I mailed off a check with the plan to complete the trade when the funds cleared, but the money didn't show up in my account until Friday afternoon, by which time the index above had already moved about four per cent.

I spent the weekend trying to decide whether to just jump in all the way despite the strong move last week, or to wait for a retrace. I just went for it. Don't have time to fiddle with stuff these days.

I've received a number of emails guessing about the composition of the chart I posted last week, nobody got it right, though some of you were less wrong than others.

The chart is an (inverted) equal-weight index of the following currency pairings:

NOK/USD, AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, XAG/USD, XAU/USD

So my trade is long US dollars and the nippy, and short the Norwegian krone, loonie, aussie, and metals. From here I'm looking for about a 10 per cent move on the index. To start with anyway.

Despite not getting the best prices on all the pairs, I am mildly pleased with myself that I shorted gold at 1256.



The high PM Fix was 1261, a buck away from the super significant number of 1262. Maybe we're ready for 666 now. Or it may be that I'm just a sucker for numerology.

Drugs charges against Paris Hilton in South Africa dropped

Drugs charges against Paris Hilton in South Africa dropped

Paris Hilton doesn't concern me much, but the first line of the news story caught me off-guard:

JOHANNESBURG, July 3 (Xinhua) -- Drugs charges against controversial U.S. socialite Paris Hilton were withdrawn in a FIFA World Cup Court in Port Elizabeth, South Africa early on Saturday morning.

Is that misstated, or does FIFA really have its own court system?

The Boy in the Bubble

I've been listening to this song every chance I get the last couple weeks. It's one of those that have its time and place, and that is now. Why, I can't say for certain.