Wednesday, March 26, 2014

PMC charts update

here I am just going to update some of the precious metals complex charts we've introduced over the past months.


so the PMC weighted index has indeed fallen back to the former neckline we highlighted. however, prior to the current retracement, it popped above that old shoulder resistance. so now I'm in the position of seeing a downside target met, but one that had been contingent on a resistance target that didn't hold. what to do? well, I already did it, before even updating this chart this evening: I bought more FSAGX -- a lot yesterday and another lot today. So now the account is 80 per cent invested in gold mining stocks.

here's an update on the PMC WI CROC*


the CROC had flirted above the neutral line for a bit there, but has since fallen back below the previous resistance. that's ok with me; it just that sentiment in the complex has backed off. I look for the upward trend line to hold.

the major area of concern should be the rapid deterioration of the PMC ratio index:


this has fallen all the way back to December levels. something like a 70 per cent retracement of the rally. that's alright, the recent fall has a capitulatory look to it. that kind of decline often transitions into a 'V' shaped rally. I'm sinking into subjective visual 'analysis' here, but I don't apologize.

so yeah, I've bought more gold stocks, might buy a little more, depending. the complex isn't behaving particularly badly in my mind -- it raced up quite fast and now stepping back. I'll get concerned if silver hits a new low and/or our ratio index does.


*Consolidated Rate of Change